Republic Services Inc (RSG) — Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services Third Quarter 2024 Conference Call. John Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO, are on the call today to discuss our performance. I would like to take a moment to remind everyone that some information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, including forward-looking financial information, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The material that we discuss today is time sensitive. If in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is October 29, 2024. Please note that this call is property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited. Our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with the recording of this call, are available on Republic's website at republicservices.com. I want to remind you that Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the date times and presentations are posted on our website. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.

Thanks, Aaron. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered strong third quarter results by effectively executing our strategy that supports profitable growth and value creation. The Republic Services team continues to deliver world-class service and innovative solutions to meet the needs of our customers. During the quarter, we achieved revenue growth of 7% and generated adjusted EBITDA growth of 14%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 210 basis points, reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.81 and produced $1.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow on a year-to-date basis. Through our differentiated capabilities, customer yield, digital and sustainability, we continue to be well positioned to capture new opportunities and create long-term value for our stakeholders. Regarding customer enthusiasm, our focus on delivering world-class essential services continues to support organic growth and enhance customer loyalty. Our customer retention rate remained strong at more than 94%. Third quarter organic revenue growth was driven by strong pricing across the business. Average yield on total revenue was 4.6%, and average yield on related revenue was 5.5%. This level of pricing continued to exceed our cost inflation and helped drive 210 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion. Organic volume on total revenue declined 1.2%. Volume losses were heavily concentrated in the cyclical portions of our business, including special waste and construction activity. Turning to our expanding digital capabilities. We continue to advance the implementation of digital tools to improve the experience for both customers and employees. Deployment of MPower, our new fleet and equipment management system is underway. MPower is designed to increase maintenance technician productivity and enhance warranty recovery. Deployment of the new system is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2025. We estimate MPower will deliver $20 million in annual cost savings once fully implemented. We continue to benefit from innovative technology on our recycling and waste collection routes. Our platform utilizes cameras to identify overfilled containers and recycling contamination. This technology generated more than $60 million in incremental revenue in the first year of operation. Moving on to sustainability. We believe that our sustainability innovation investments in plastic circularity and renewable natural gas position us to continue grow and create long-term value. Development of our polymer centers and Blue Polymers joint venture facilities continues to progress. Las Vegas Polymer Center production volumes continued to increase throughout the quarter. Construction is progressing on our Indianapolis Polymer Center with initial equipment commissioning underway. This operation will be co-located with a Blue Polymers production facility. We expect construction on this facility to be completed by the end of this year, with earnings contribution in the second half of 2025. We recently broke ground on a Blue Polymers production facility in Buckeye, Arizona, which will complement the Las Vegas Polymer Center. We expect the completion of this facility in late 2025. We continue to bring decarbonization solutions to the market that will unlock value for all of our stakeholders, including the communities we serve. The renewable natural gas projects we're developing with our partners continue to advance. Two projects came online during the third quarter, bringing the total completed this year to four projects. We expect four additional RNG projects to be completed during the fourth quarter. We continue to advance our commitment to fleet electrification. We currently have 28 electric collection vehicles in operation and expect to have more than 50 EVs in our fleet by the end of the year. We have 18 facilities with commercial scale EV charging infrastructure. As part of our approach to sustainability, we are committed to being an employer of choice in the markets we serve. Our third quarter employee turnover rate improved more than 100 basis points compared to the prior year and we are proud to be certified as a great place to work for the eighth consecutive year. Regarding capital allocation, year-to-date, we have invested $104 million in strategic acquisitions. Our acquisition pipeline remains supportive of continued activity in both recycling and waste and environmental solutions. We currently have more than $200 million in transactions that are expected to close by the end of the year. Year-to-date, we returned $834 million to shareholders, which includes $330 million in share repurchases. I will now turn the call over to Brian, who will provide details on the quarter.

Thanks, Jon. Core price on total revenue was 6.2%, core price on related revenue was 7.4%, which included open market pricing of 9.1% and restricted pricing of 4.8%. The components of core price on related revenue included: small container of 10.3%, large container of 6.9% and residential of 7.2%. Average yield on total revenue was 4.6%, and average yield on related revenue was 5.5%. As expected, average yields stepped down sequentially as we began to anniversary the new fees implemented last year. The fees relate to overfilled containers and recycling contamination and were enabled by our digital platform. Third quarter volume on total revenue decreased 1.2% and volume on related revenue decreased 1.5%. Volume results included a decrease in large containers of 3.6%, primarily due to continued softness in construction-related activities, and a decrease in residential of 2.9%, primarily due to municipal contracts lost in 2023 that we anniversary in the fourth quarter of this year. During the quarter, small container volume decreased by 40 basis points, while landfill MSW increased by 30 basis points. Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices were $177 per ton during the third quarter. This compares to $112 per ton in the prior year. Recycling processing and commodity sales increased revenue by 70 basis points during the quarter. Commodity prices are currently $106 per ton reflecting a recent decline in the price for recovered cardboard (OCC). Total company adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 210 basis points to 32%. Margin performance during the quarter included: margin expansion in the underlying business of 120 basis points, a 40 basis point increase from net fuel, a 30 basis point increase from recycled commodity prices, and a 50 basis point benefit from an insurance recovery related to a prior year claim. This was partially offset by a 30 basis point decrease from acquisitions completed in the prior year. Now turning to our Environmental Solutions business. Third quarter Environmental Solutions revenue increased by $60 million compared to the prior year, driven by the rollover contribution from prior year acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the Environmental Solutions business expanded by 290 basis points to 25.5% in the third quarter. Environmental Solutions EBITDA margin was 22.6% in the prior year. Environmental Solutions margin included a positive 110 basis points from an adjustment to an allowance for bad debt established in a prior year. Excluding this benefit, Environmental Solutions margin would have been 24.4%. Year-to-date, adjusted free cash flow was $1.74 billion. The decrease from the prior year is primarily due to the timing of capital expenditures. Year-to-date net capital expenditures of $1.19 billion represent an increase of $250 million or 27% compared to the prior year. Capital spending is more ratable in 2024, whereas 2023 was heavily weighted to the fourth quarter. Prior year capital expenditures were impacted by vendor-related delays in truck and equipment deliveries. Total debt is $12.6 billion and total liquidity is $2.6 billion. Our leverage rate at the end of the quarter was approximately 2.6 times. Regarding taxes, our combined tax rate and impact from equity investments in renewable energy resulted in an equivalent tax impact of 21.6% during the quarter. This favorable tax rate, driven primarily by the timing of equity investments in renewable energy, contributed $0.09 of EPS benefit during the quarter. I will now hand back over to Jon.

Thanks, Brian. Regarding 2024, we believe we are trending toward the low end of our full year revenue guidance due to continued softness in cyclical volumes. That said, we expect to more than overcome this revenue headwind and achieve the high end of our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance. As a result, we expect EBITDA margin to outperform our expectations. Looking forward to 2025, we expect continued growth across the business supported by pricing ahead of underlying costs, cross-selling our complete set of products and services, and capitalizing on value-creating acquisition opportunities. We also expect financial contributions from the investments made in sustainability innovation, including plastic circularity and renewable natural gas projects. We believe that the fundamentals of our business are strong and supportive of continued growth in revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow along with margin expansion in the underlying business. Over the long term, we believe our business can consistently deliver mid-single-digit revenue growth and grow EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow faster than revenue. Our initial perspective on full year 2025 is consistent with this long-term growth algorithm. We plan to provide detailed 2025 guidance on our earnings call in February. With that, operator, I would like to open the call to questions.

Hi, good afternoon and good evening, everyone. Nice quarter. Brian, I'm wondering if you could just expand if there are any other one-time items in the quarter, really impressive performance. And as I look at the fourth quarter guidance, it looks like you're guiding to margins to step down a couple of points more than normal seasonality 4Q versus 3Q. I'm wondering if that is just conservatism? Or were there any other embedded tailwinds in the third quarter beyond the debt item that you spoke about regarding environmental services?

Yes. Thanks, Jerry. Taking a look at the third quarter, we called out the two big pieces that you could say were somewhat large and unusual for the quarter: the insurance recovery, which had an impact of a positive 50 basis points to the quarter itself. We also called out the bad debt recovery, which was 110 basis points to Environmental Solutions, about a 10 basis point contribution to the enterprise overall. Excluding that, I mean, I mentioned how fuel and commodity prices were doing, but the underlying business showed strength of that one hundred basis points.

Really impressive performance. And then if I can shift gears and ask you to talk about the polymer center rollout, can you just expand on the performance so far? How has the production ramp played out versus the initial plan? Any updates to the timelines that you folks previously shared?

Sure. Yes. We're really happy in terms of the pricing we're getting. We're exceeding our pro forma expectations. We're satisfied with the volume ramp in terms of how that equipment is functioning. We got off to a little later start than we would have liked for reasons unrelated to the equipment, such as permitting of the facility, getting electricity in, and managing all aspects around the construction of the building envelope. Those things take time. We may have been a little aggressive in our timeline to begin with. Despite that delayed start, we still feel very confident overall. In India, construction is hitting its marks, including timeline expectations. We're proud of the purity of the clean material we’re producing, which the market clearly needs. It’s beneficial for circularity and ultimately great for our shareholders as well.

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking the questions. I had one on pricing, considering open market versus restricted. I think the last several quarters, your open market core price has been 400 basis points or more above restricted. Is that a good spread for us to expect going forward, even if some of the inflation indices continue to ramp down? Additionally, in your shift away from CPI to more of those open market alternative pricing mechanisms, how much further room do you think you have to shift at this time?

When looking at the spread, we've mentioned that we thought we were in an elevated pricing environment in part due to the backdrop of elevated inflation. We've indicated that this would step down sequentially. As we look forward into 2025, we would expect that to decline as well. Historically, open market pricing tends to run above that which you can achieve on the restricted business side. Currently, I would say that spread is probably a bit above where I would consider it through the cycle. However, we do expect to price in excess of our cost inflation consistent with what we've accomplished over the last few years, driving margin expansion in the business.

Got it. Thank you. That’s helpful.

In terms of moving away from CPI, we continue to maintain incremental progress on that. We've seen a couple of major contracts transition from CPI to water sewer trash. It’s really about moving to fixed pricing above those metrics, which positions us well across the cycle.

Yes, we’ve transitioned about 61% of those contracts that were historically pegged to headline CPI to something more favorable.

Got it. Okay. Thank you both. That's helpful. Then just quickly, could we discuss labor availability? Based on the BLS data, wage inflation in your industry is around mid-single digits. Is that the trend you are observing as well? Additionally, as the overall labor market has cooled slightly in recent months, have you noticed any changes in labor availability?

We’ve seen turnover drop 100 basis points year-over-year, which is a good trend. Labor cost inflation has been around 4.5%, and we’re currently maintaining that rate. We anticipate marginal reductions moving into next year based on current data. Overall labor availability is improving, but certain categories, such as technicians, remain difficult to fill. Hence, we’ve vertically integrated into technical education through our own training institute, which has proven successful in fielding entry-level technicians.

Okay. Thanks so much. Appreciate the insight.

Thank you so much. I was hoping to ask for some additional color on the core price deceleration this quarter. I know you previously mentioned that it was due to the anniversary of the new fees from last year. Was there anything else in the quarter that stands out in terms of the pricing environment and how we should consider it going forward?

If we look at the sequential step down from Q2 to Q4, I would point out that the restricted portion of our business also declined from 5.6% to 4.9%, which reflects the pricing environment. It’s in line with our expectations that those would step down sequentially, as well as our cost inflation. As long as we maintain that spread, we can drive margin expansion in the business.

Great. I would also like to inquire about volume. You mentioned issues with special waste and construction softness. Should we expect these trends to persist in upcoming quarters? Any other comments regarding volumes would be helpful. Thanks.

Across the industry, in the last 12 to 18 months, we are experiencing a flat to slightly negative demand environment from a unit standpoint. This may not have been well understood or discussed. Cyclical aspects are driving this, as is some softness in the industrial side of the business. With the large container sector, we are gaining share there, but we're observing lower activity levels at individual customers. On the construction side, whether this resumes in three to six months or nine to twelve months, I remain optimistic. Interest rates declining will positively influence that. We’ve significantly underbuilt single-family homes in the United States over the last fifteen years, leaving a lot of pent-up demand. We are noticing promising signs regarding special waste and industrial activity. Typically, during election years, there’s a slight paralysis, but the pipeline remains robust. We're optimistic about the remainder of the year and certainly into 2025.

Thank you very much.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Good afternoon and congrats on some good results. On the Q2 call, you mentioned about a $300 million pipeline in M&A; it looks like you have booked about $200 million in Q3. Just wondering about the remaining $100 million – do you think you can close that by year-end? Or is there an update to that pipeline as you work through it?

Taking a broader view, coming off three fantastic years in M&A, our commitment remains firm, and we retain our optimistic outlook going forward. There’s always some ebb and flow. We closed a couple of sizeable deals in Q4 of last year, resulting in a slower start this year. However, predicting transactions for this year, along with anticipated Q4 closures, brings us close to $300 million. Initially, we projected closer to $500 million. While we’ve addressed many deals already, many more continue to build, so we anticipate a good first half of next year on that front. Our enthusiasm for M&A remains strong, and we expect it to contribute significantly next year.

That’s helpful. Additionally, I remember about a month ago, you placed an order for about 100 EVs. I believe you're targeting that half of new purchases in 2028 will be electric vehicles. Commercial fleet operators appear to be cautious about adopting this technology, citing reasons that it’s not ready yet or infrastructure is lacking. How do you see your EV strategy aligning with those 2028 targets, considering these variables?

Certainly, there will be varied responses in terms of pace of transition. We’ve realized that EV isn't simply about the truck; it's an entire system. So, infrastructure needs to be in place from the outset. We've been proactive regarding incentives, as they certainly speed up adoption and reduce payback periods. Our teams have been engaged for three years. Achieving a truly effective EV vehicle solution continues to be paramount—we finally have such a product from Oshkosh, which allows enough battery capacity for a full day's operation without sacrificing payload, an important design consideration for us. We're excited about this product. There will be winners and losers in the near to mid-term in terms of the pace of adoption.

Thanks for the insight.

Thanks, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to follow up on the housekeeping items regarding M&A. Can you speak about the rollover effect in 2025 based on what you've closed thus far?

Regarding the rollover impact, we anticipate negligible growth in 2025, expecting a range of about ten to twenty basis points at this point.

That makes sense. And obviously, there's probably upside if you close some acquisitions you're eyeing in Q4.

Correct. Since that only accounts for what is already closed through the third quarter, there will be a rollover impact from any deals finalized in the fourth quarter.

Great. My question is about margins. Looking at the trend this year so far, your margins have expanded sequentially. However, in Q4, the margins seem to decline based on projections. Entering 2025, what factors are you considering regarding margin movement given that some of the circularity projects ramp up while headwinds could ease next year? How should we generally think about margin expansion next year?

While we aren’t providing specific guidance for 2025 yet, we regularly share an outlook: We aim to achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth and outpace that with EBITDA growth and margin growth, approximately 30 to 50 basis points. This year will exceed that, but into next year, we expect to maintain that pace for margin expansion.

That’s fair. Thank you for the insight.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. It's less than three years since the Ecol acquisition. I believe you mentioned that EBITDA in Environmental Solutions is around 24%. Going back to 2021, Ecol stand-alone targets were like $17 million and I think $40 million of synergies probably picks you up 300 to 400 basis points. Is the remainder of that delta simply improved pricing, or is there any acquisition mix benefit that contributed to that improvement as well? Any insights would be appreciated.

Yes, all of the above contributed to that improvement. Starting on the revenue side, we’re analyzing customer mixes to evaluate willingness to pay and pricing power. We've noted some customer churn this year as we pushed pricing, resulting in many clients seeking cost reductions, but high-quality service and safety often regain those clients. Pricing has certainly exceeded our expectations. Strong customer relationships drive what we've achieved, and we're enforcing our perceived value. Additionally, regarding tactical pricing adjustments at the account level, we continue to identify further pricing power opportunities. Strong cost controls have been key to maintaining discipline, improving labor utilization overall. We've achieved faster progress than anticipated, and we expect significant growth for that business moving forward.

I appreciate the insights. Thank you.

Following up on the Environmental Services and US Ecology business, what's your long-term view on margins that you believe can be achieved over time in that segment? I'm also curious about the disposal market digesting incremental capacity, specifically related to new incinerators coming online.

Around 25% of free cash flow converges with the recycling and waste businesses across cycles. In the long term, we don’t see a limitation on why EBITDA margins in that sector couldn't align closely with those of recycling business given the nature of those products. They involve several technical waste streams requiring strict environmental compliance, making those valuable services over time. Regarding new incineration facilities coming online, these are welcomed developments. The industry has suffered from limited supply for an extended period, and we're optimistic about the opportunities that new capacity will fulfill.

I had anticipated a faster pace of M&A this year. What have you observed with target margin profiles, particularly in the context of supply chain constraints, wage growth, and technology affecting profitability?

The pace of M&A can vary, and we have maintained our disciplined approach to evaluating opportunities. For every eight prospects we assess, we may finalize one. Each must meet our strategic and financial criteria. Focus will be on long-term benefits, so we evaluate potential risks carefully. Likewise, margin profiles are less about where they are currently and more about what they can become with operational improvements following acquisition.

Thank you.

Hi, good afternoon, everyone.

Good afternoon, Tyler.

I have a couple of questions. First, I want to revisit your implied Q4 guidance. If I use the high end, it implies that Q4 is approximately $1.2 billion, which seems down high single digits from Q3—worse than the typical seasonality. I understand the 60 basis points referenced from bad debt and insurance, but this seems somewhat conservative. Have I missed something?

As we indicated in our opening remarks, we talked about being on the low end of revenue guidance while anticipating high-end EBITDA margin guidance. Approaching year-end, we’re focused on our plans for 2025. We don’t aim for pinpoint accuracy in updating guidance; rather, we’ll share key markers and feel confident about Q4 and 2025's outlook.

I appreciate the clarity. Regarding the implied volume guidance for Q4, are there any hurricane cleanup efforts factored in?

There could be a minor lift from that. However, we do not plan for it as a primary source of revenue. Occasionally, cleanup efforts yield favorable results, but our main focus remains on taking care of our staff, especially those affected. Once stabilized, they can resume regular operations. Sometimes, that leads to unexpected revenue, which is merely an addition to our expectations.

Regarding 2025, I sense there are multiple moving pieces. Could you aggregate those together? The polymer and Blue Polymer facilities coming online, potential savings from RISE and MPower, and RNG benefits — could you broadly quantify those incremental drivers for 2025?

For sustainability innovation, which combines RNG, polymer centers, and Blue Polymers, we project about $75 million in additional revenue and $30 to $35 million in EBITDA for 2025 versus 2024. We also expect some advantages from MPower, though we’ll deploy gradually. The initial business units will begin using the system, with full deployment anticipated by end of 2025, yielding about a $20 million benefit at run rate. Regarding RISE, we've generated over $60 million from those fees throughout the year, so that's reflected in our run rate. In terms of product perspectives, you can expect $25 million going forward, half of which should be realized in 2025 as well as in 2026.

That’s perfect. Lastly, will there be an anticipated tax credit headwind based on current projections?

We don't expect a CNG tax credit for 2025, we are adhering to existing laws. Currently, that is set to expire, thus is not included in our projections. For us, that would typically yield about $15 million.

Understood. Thank you.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Can we discuss internal inflation compared to the CPI headline? How has that been trending in Q3, and what about Q4 and into 2025?

Yes, the landscape looks better with inflation easing. We’ve seen labor costs at about 4.5%, reflecting a favorable overall inflation indication. Maintenance has improved, attributed to the delivery of our fleet and reduced outsourcing. Parts inflation has moderated, thus helping down the overall rate. We expect marginal improvement into 2025.

Great. What about the capital spending associated with your sustainability initiatives relative to 2024?

We expect capital spending on sustainability to be on par with this year, slightly higher, but nothing significantly altering CapEx as a percentage of revenue.

Thank you.

Hi, thanks, folks. I think in the last quarter, 32% EBITDA margins could be achievable over time. Can you discuss the organic performance for Environmental Solutions? How do these trends look for the rest of the year?

Certainly, volume-wise this year has seen flat performance relative to expectations, with some churn observed as we work to reinforce our pricing power. We’re going to maintain pressure on pricing and continue our push for growth in units and pricing. You can expect proactive efforts in our 2025 plan.

Thanks for that detail. I'm curious if 100 basis points annual margin expansion is reasonable for Environmental Solutions?

Yes, I think we can reasonably target 80 to 100 basis points across the cycle, with certain years potentially exceeding that objective.

That’s very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks very much.

Great. Following up on the previous inquiry regarding your customers, how do you feel their willingness to accept spreads over the cost base is changing as inflation moderates? Are you finding negotiations easier or harder than a year ago? Are the rate cuts having any impact?

In a climate of 2.5% to 4% inflation, we're in a relatively strong position. While we have observed high inflation before, it was unsustainable. We've also navigated through ultra-low inflation periods where wage increases every year become trickier. Overall, a moderate inflation scenario serves us better.

Thank you. What about unit volume trends given the price increases over recent quarters?

To clarify, customer churn occurs each time we perform M&A, and we always anticipate some churn from municipal contracts we choose to replace systematically. Overall, we’re observing a decline of 10% quarter-over-quarter in construction-related activities. However, looking ahead, recovery signs are emerging in construction and special waste industries. These sectors exhibit resilience, particularly as we look into 2025.

The losses from contracts experienced previously will future around residential capabilities, as these contrasts will anniversary with year-end. Thus, we anticipate normalizing as we exit this quarter.

Thank you very much for your insights.

Yes, thank you. I'd like to revisit quarter-over-quarter margin trends. I can see the 60 basis point positive contribution from one-time factors. Is the anticipated Q4 margin decline solely due to commodity price drops, or was there anything contextually in the prior year's comp that should be recognized?

In last year's comparisons, margins remained flat from Q3 to Q4 rather than the expected decline. Therefore, we face a tougher comp this year. That said, we are confident about how this will gel at year-end, and we'll address final results in February.

Understood. Lastly, regarding 2025, should we expect some rollover from previously closed acquisitions? Additionally, any below-the-line factors, including interest expenses, tax rates, or other considerations?

The anticipated rollover for 2025 based on closed activities is around 10 to 20 basis points, which can increase with acquisitions finalized in the fourth quarter. Regarding rates, lower maturity rates than current ones are likely to raise overall interest expenses slightly, but nothing severe.

Thank you.

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. Regarding your digital efforts with the RISE platform, could you share any updates on forthcoming capabilities across systems? I remember you have been integrating new tablets and adopting surcharge practices—what lies ahead as we approach 2025?

Now that the platform is established, we are focusing on refining route sequences to optimize performance and ensuring drivers adhere to designated routes. A minute saved across our systems translates to about $5 million annually, so any efficiencies will add up to significant savings.

Over the past few years, we’ve modernized multiple systems without major capital burdens or risks. We have improved on marketing, sales, HR, procurement, operations, and cash. We will continue to capitalize on transactional automations that will enhance efficiency and improve customer and employee value propositions.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, Nick. I want to thank the entire Republic Services team for their commitment to exceeding customer expectations and contributing to the continued growth and success of our company. Have a good evening and stay safe.