AAPL Fair Value Estimate
$190.1525.7% overvalued
Blended fair value estimate based on DCF, Graham Number, and earnings-based models.
Apple Inc
Exchange: NASDAQSector: TechnologyIndustry: Consumer Electronics
Apple Inc. (Apple) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players, and a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications. The Company's products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a variety of accessory, service and support offerings. The Company also delivers digital content and applications through the iTunes Store, App StoreSM, iBookstoreSM, and Mac App Store. The Company distributes its products worldwide through its retail stores, online stores, and direct sales force, as well as through third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and value-added resellers. In February 2012, the Company acquired app-search engine Chomp.
Did you know?
Price sits at 74% of its 52-week range.
Current Price
$255.92
+0.11%GoodMoat Value
$190.15
25.7% overvaluedProfile
Valuation (TTM)
Market Cap$3.78T
P/E32.11
EV$3.74T
P/B51.29
Shares Out14.78B
P/Sales8.68
Revenue$435.62B
EV/EBITDA24.87
Apple Inc (AAPL) Valuation
GoodMoat Analysis
Apple's current valuation appears unfavourable for a value investor, as it trades at a significant premium to its estimated intrinsic value. The stock's P/E ratio is elevated compared to both its own history and the broader market, offering no margin of safety.
Read full analysis
Based on the GoodMoat Investment Framework, Apple's current price of $252.62 is 32.9% above the GoodMoat Target fair value estimate of $190.15. This results in a negative margin of safety, which falls into the 'Unfavourable' band per Section 4's DCF guidance. A value investor seeks a margin of safety of at least 20%, which is not present. The forward P/E of 31.7x is high, especially when contextualized against the S&P 500's long-term average of approximately 16x and Apple's own historical norms, which have typically been lower. While Apple possesses a strong business with high profitability, as evidenced by its 27% profit margin and 32% operating margin, the stock's price reflects this quality and more. The valuation multiples, including a P/E over 31x and a Free Cash Flow Yield of only 2.6%, suggest the market is pricing in near-perfect execution. For a value investor, the current price does not provide a sufficient discount to intrinsic value to compensate for the risks inherent in any investment, making the valuation unattractive despite the underlying quality of the business.
AAPL Valuation Metrics
FCF$98.77B
FCF Growth Rate9.00%
EPS Growth (CAGR)9.00%
WACC10.00%
Fair Value Models
Graham Number, PEG-based, and Earnings-based models
View Fair Value →AAPL Valuation & Fair Value Analysis
Apple Inc (AAPL) valuation analysis using multiple fair value methodologies. GoodMoat calculates a blended fair value target using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the Graham Number, and earnings-based valuation models.
The GoodMoat Fair Value target for Apple Inc is $190.15. The current stock price is $255.92, suggesting the stock is 34.6% overvalued.
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 32.11. Price-to-book ratio is 51.29. Price-to-sales ratio is 8.68. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 24.87. PEG ratio is 1.76.
GoodMoat's valuation models include the Graham Number (based on EPS and book value), an earnings-based model (discounted future EPS), and a PEG-adjusted valuation. The three models are averaged to produce a blended fair value estimate. Use these tools alongside the DCF calculator and reverse DCF to form a comprehensive view of Apple Inc's intrinsic value.