MGM Resorts International
MGM Resorts International is an S&P 500® global gaming and entertainment company with national and international destinations featuring best-in-class hotels and casinos, state-of-the-art meetings and conference spaces, incredible live and theatrical entertainment experiences, and an extensive array of restaurant, nightlife and retail offerings. MGM Resorts creates immersive, iconic experiences through its suite of Las Vegas-inspired brands. The MGM Resorts portfolio encompasses 31 unique hotel and gaming destinations globally, including some of the most recognizable resort brands in the industry. The Company's 50/50 venture, BetMGM, LLC, offers sports betting and online gaming in North America through market-leading brands, including BetMGM and partypoker, and the Company's subsidiary, LV Lion Holding Limited, offers sports betting and online gaming through market-leading brands in several jurisdictions throughout Europe and Brazil. The Company is currently pursuing targeted expansion in Asia through an integrated resort development in Japan. Through its Focused on What Matters philosophy, MGM Resorts commits to creating a more sustainable future, while striving to make a bigger difference in the lives of its employees, guests and in the communities where it operates. The global employees of MGM Resorts are proud of their company for being recognized as one of FORTUNE® Magazine's World's Most Admired Companies®.
Current Price
$37.66
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$47.97
27.4% undervaluedMGM Resorts International (MGM) — Q4 2017 Earnings Call Transcript
Original transcript
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the MGM Resorts International, Fourth Quarter 2017 and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Joining the call from the company today are Jim Murren, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Dan D'Arrigo, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Bill Hornbuckle, President; Corey Sanders, Chief Operating Officer; and Grant Bowie, CEO and Executive Director of MGM China Holdings Limited. Participants are in a listen-only mode. After the company's remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. In fairness to all participants, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please note this conference is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan D'Arrigo. Please go ahead.
Well, thank you, Nicole, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the MGM Resorts International, fourth quarter and full year 2017 earnings call. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet at www.mgmresorts.com, and we have furnished our press release on Form 8-K to the SEC this morning. On this call, we will make forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Federal Securities Laws. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated in these statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from these forward-looking statements is contained in today's press release and in our periodic filings with the SEC. During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures in talking about our performance. You can find the reconciliation to GAAP financial measures in the press release, which is also available on our website. Please also note that our supplemental earnings deck is posted to our website. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Mr. Jim Murren.
Well, thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. I’d like to take a moment to put our strong fourth quarter and full year into a longer-term perspective. Over the last several years, MGM has undertaken a remarkable transformation, aligning all of our brands into one global entertainment brand, driving a disciplined, unified view of strategy, creating and continuing to build one common approach to guest service, and firmly establishing a clear and unwavering set of values that guide both our behaviors and our contributions to the communities in which we operate. These decisions, thoughtfully planned and carefully executed, have resulted in a robust and resilient business model that provides defensive earnings streams but also creates strong tailwinds for the future, and I would say 2017 proved that out. Despite the challenges we faced in the fourth quarter, our earnings were relatively well protected, and we finished the year strong. We are excited about 2018 as well. We had given guidance in the fourth quarter of EBITDA margins down 100 basis points; they are actually down only 30. We’ve given REVPAR guidance down 5% to 7%, and the actual outcome was down 4.9%. We think that 2018 is going to be a very strong year for our company based on what we see here in Las Vegas, in Macau, and in our regional properties. We'll start with Macau. We just got back from there after having opened a beautiful new resort, MGM COTAI, on February 13, just before an important Lunar New Year. We think this property is a game changer in the market, and for integrated resorts around the world. It’s so breathtakingly unique that everyone will want to experience it. Thousands upon thousands have already visited to experience this one-of-a-kind environment. You remember that we set out to design and develop an innovative, integrated resort that would fulfill the government's requirements to support global tourism, and we’ve delivered on that. What’s exciting is that the opening event is just the beginning, with many catalysts driving further traffic and profitability to COTAI this year. These include launching our first resident show, ‘Destiny,’ which will attract more mass customers and generate buzz around the property, as well as the opening of our Mansion and five junket operators to support the VIP business. We opened recently, so the data is early, but I can say that demand for both properties has been strong in terms of rooms and gaming activity. We didn't have all our rooms available at COTAI for the opening—around 900 were available—but we’ll have all the rooms open in the spring. In finance, we continue to see gratifying loyalty from our customer base. We finished the year strong, driven by good mass business and VIP sales in the fourth quarter. We’ve seen traffic there that we haven't seen in quite some time, and that has continued into the New Year. We are excited about the opportunities that these properties offer and believe we are well positioned for the market regarding the type of product our customers are looking for. We are confident that we can build our market share and command more than our fair share, as we have in the past, due to the high-quality product and the best management and employees in the business. Here in Las Vegas, we have had conversations since experiencing the great shock to our community in October. Yet our fourth quarter materialized as we expected—indeed, even slightly better than expected. This speaks to the power of our brands and the resiliency of our strong and nimble operating model. Our strong analytical horsepower allows us to understand our business in real-time and make accurate forecasts. The commitment of our people is truly the big story, as is the continued recognition that Las Vegas offers an unparalleled suite of experiences that helps keep the market fresh, relevant, and exciting—all of which we saw in the fourth quarter and certainly into this year. There is a lot of interest in Las Vegas today, and others are investing in marketing, which we welcome. This drives incremental visitors and puts the city in a better position for the future, thanks to the genius of our founder, Kirk Kerkorian. He taught us to invest in our community to encourage others to do so, and together, the destination would grow, benefiting MGM. That’s still true today, and we are very excited about the future because of the collective investments that we and others are making. We continue to see and pursue attractive ROI opportunities in this market, reinvesting in our properties to maximize their full potential. Recently, we've achieved this with our expansion to the Mandalay Convention Center, our award-winning T-Mobile Arena, and the convention expansion at ARIA, which just opened last week and is already receiving great feedback. This year, we will continue to invest further, especially in convention space, with the expansion to the MGM Grand opening early next year and the dramatic transformation of Monte Carlo into Park MGM and NoMad. While this transformation has been disruptive for us, we are seeing immediate customer demand with the opening of venues like Bavette’s, which has become one of the best steakhouses in Las Vegas. As we’ve discussed, Las Vegas has transformed itself into a sports lover’s town, creating more opportunities for the destination and for MGM. Additionally, if the Supreme Court legalizes sports betting this year, MGM is poised to take advantage of that opportunity immediately. Regarding performance events and our industry, sports represents a significant avenue of growth for MGM Resorts in the future. Now, let’s talk about 2018 and why we are optimistic. As we said before, the first quarter presents challenges due to the lapping of CON/AGG and the fact that CES shifted a week. That said, CES was another really successful show. In fact, we set a record for hotel revenue days during that time. We also had a very strong Super Bowl and, so far, a robust Chinese New Year. We remain optimistic about the high end throughout the year. Despite concerns regarding calendar shifts and broader corrections, we feel good about the U.S. economy and are very positive about our forecasting ability for the balance of this year. We are also encouraged by benefits from corporate tax cuts that will help not only MGM but our visiting customers as well. The fundamentals of our business are very sound. We continue to see healthy levels of bookings, which we will elaborate on more specifically later, but our corporate meetings and convention business is fantastic. Additionally, the event calendar for 2018 is outstanding, and we have some innovative ideas to continue enhancing our entertainment offerings, both this year and into 2019, which bodes well for a marketplace in which we are the greatest beneficiaries. We also see growth opportunities in Macau working with our fellow concessionaries, especially as MGM COTAI adds more new offerings. We remain committed to the investments we've discussed, being disciplined in our capital usage, and focusing on projects we've already outlined for you—such as the transformation of Monte Carlo, continued expansion of our brand with the convention expansion at MGM Grand, the addition of MGM Springfield later this year, and developments in COTAI. Moreover, what James Stewart and the team are doing at MGM Growth Properties, the premier triple net lease REIT in the space, with great cost of capital and various projects in the pipeline from which MGM is the largest economic beneficiary, feels promising. We have a positive outlook for MGM Resorts’ shareholders. So what shall we do with our future? Given our cash flow growth, and as we near completion of our development cycle, we will continue executing on a disciplined four-pronged capital allocation strategy. First, we will keep reinvesting in our business where it makes sense to maximize performance and enhance our competitive advantages; that's working well here in Las Vegas. Second, we will maintain a strong credit profile and outstanding balance sheet. Third, we will seek prudent growth opportunities where MGM has a differentiating advantage and where potential returns can be outsized. Lastly, we will continue to return capital to our shareholders. Since starting this journey, we've returned about $580 million to shareholders and, as you likely saw today, we also announced a 9% increase in our quarterly dividend. I'm proud of what we achieved in 2017. I believe 2018 will be a great year for our company, and with that, I’ll turn it over to our operator for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. Our first question comes from Joe Greff of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Jim. Good morning, everybody.
Good morning.
Good morning, Jim.
Jim, your full year 2018 Las Vegas strip outlook suggests that the 2Q through 4Q will grow about 8% on average in terms of EBITDA. Can you just talk about how you see—obviously the 3Q has a very difficult comparison to what you delivered last year. But can you talk about maybe how backend-loaded it is to the 4Q and just maybe you can give us some specificity on the group phase? You mentioned earlier that corporate meetings were terrific and then in that count you said that’s steady. If you can give some specific data points behind that, that would be great, and then I have a follow-up?
Sure, Joe. I’ll start and then I’ll turn it over to Dan and Corey. First on REVPAR, I think the guidance we gave indicates an increase of 2% to 4%, and obviously with the hold we experienced in the first quarter, that would imply decent REVPAR growth in the balance of the year, which we expect. Q2 and Q3 look about the same in terms of REVPAR, increasing in the mid-single digits, and we should see double-digit REVPAR growth in the fourth quarter, providing a sense of how that plays out. The fourth quarter obviously presents an unusual comparison to a year ago, while Q2 and Q3 are projecting healthy REVPAR growth. We did have a couple of major fights in the third quarter that certainly drove demand in Q3 '17, which will be a challenge to replicate. On the other hand, we have a few significant fights and a huge concert in the second quarter this year, bracketed around the investor day Cathy’s is hosting to entice investors to join us for a big Canelo GGG fight happening in that quarter. We also have a U2 concert scheduled for that quarter, along with another fight, so the second quarter looks strong from an event perspective. The third quarter poses some challenges in competing with last year’s event calendar. But that’s how the event shapes out. In terms of convention business, it looks strong all year. I’ll pass it to these guys to elaborate, but we have seen solid bookings for the year. Their pace looks strong. Our convention mix appears to be about what we experienced last year, with strong bookings and the added benefit of our convention expansion at REV, which has already been well received. Dan, do you want to add anything?
What I would add, Joe, is that the hole in the first quarter due to CON/AGG represents the largest hall. There’s some city-wide shrinkage in the third quarter that we hope to fill with corporate business, but other than that, the outlook appears positive on the convention side.
Great, excellent. Then Dan, with regard to your thoughts on domestic CapEx for the next few years, it seems you've typically stated it to be in the range of $500 million to $600 million. Now I know many projects have shifted into 2018, but please share how you’re thinking about domestic CapEx beyond this year on a steady run-rate basis?
Yes, I think the $500 million to $600 million, Joe, is a solid placeholder for the next several years. We are slightly above that in '18, largely due to timing and completion of bigger projects. We were a little on the low end in '17, so I still see the $500 million to $600 million as the right level long-term. '18 may fluctuate due to various timing of project completions.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Shaun.
Operator
Our next question comes from Harry Curtis of Nomura. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everybody. Just a quick follow-up on Joe’s question. As far as the convention business in Vegas, Corey, are you seeing much in the way of overflow into the lower-priced shoulder months? I don't think I got a sense of what the general pricing is on the business you’ve got on the books. Is it up mid-single digit or a reasonable estimate?
On the lower months, overflow typically occurs during the year, and we have some leads that look promising for that period right now. Regarding pricing from a definite perspective, we are observing low to mid-single digit growth.
Got it. And then Jim, you mentioned that Grant is on the phone. I wonder if he might give us some early impressions on traffic and volumes since the opening, and perhaps a reasonable question is how many cylinders you think it's operating on now versus its potential?
Sure. I’d like to know too, Grant, so…
Thank you. Harry, one key advantage of having Chinese New Year is there's never a shortage of people. The significant challenge during this season is if you’re not ready, it can be chaotic. On that front, we have significantly pushed capacities at the property over the last four or five days. Everything is operating well, and the performance has been robust. Importantly, the table win ratios have been very strong. We’ve had traffic that’s exceeded expectations in Macau, as Jim mentioned. It’s a ramp-up period, and while we had some challenges, the initial indicators are very positive. Our target market is the mid-premium mass market, and I’m pleased with our operational pace. We’ve also built up nearly half a million participants in our vChat accounts, which is positive even before our official opening. Overall, I believe this is very encouraging. Yes, it’s challenging to draw conclusions at this early stage, but first impressions are exceptional, and we’re generating significant social media buzz from guests sharing photos.
I guess the one gap I’d be interested in is your expected opening of The Mansion rooms and how that positions you against some of the higher-end offerings in Macau?
The Mansion will be completely unique. I don’t think a specific product like this currently exists. Other properties have beautiful suites, but the private, personalized experience The Mansion brings from Las Vegas will be an exciting addition in Macau, and we’ll be preparing for that later in the year. Initially, we want to engage junket operators, which may come on board slightly before opening The Mansion, allowing us to finalize the property details. I believe it will deliver an extraordinary environment and our customers are primed to expect exceptionalism.
Grant, thank you. That does it for me.
Thanks, Harry.
Operator
Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Grant, regarding COTAI for a quick minute—could you provide more specific timing? Do you think The Mansion rooms will open by the end of the second quarter, or is that timeline shifting? Also, when can we expect some junket operations to start running?
Regarding the junkets, we are aiming for a June to July time frame, and with The Mansion just getting the final details aligned, we anticipate its opening in September.
That's great. Now switching back to Vegas, while you provided good insights on the corporate convention side, the Monte Carlo ramp is clearly impacting what you delivered in '17 and how you foresee '18. Could you provide additional context on the overall impact of the Monte Carlo Park transition on total EBITDA throughout '18 and what kind of lift or IRR we should be considering for that investment as we move into '19 and '20?
On the IRR front, we are estimating the investment at just over $500 million for the conversion and transformation to Park MGM and NoMad, which totals about $525 million. We expect a mid-teens cash-on-cash return as the property ramps up. The completion of the project will occur by the end of the year, with the last components coming online in the fourth quarter. The brand campaign will be launched and run in the back half of 2018, essentially making this a new property opening, as it offers a different and unique experience. Given this new brand, I expect the ramp-up period to be in 2019, with stabilization expected to deliver the type of cash-on-cash return we’re looking for in '20.
Regarding the fourth quarter, approximately two-thirds of our decline was due to construction disruption. While we’ve been bringing more elements online, there's still a level of disruption. For Q1, we estimate around $9 million to $10 million in EBITDA impact from construction disruptions. There remains significant ongoing projects and we’ll provide more details as the year progresses, but that’s a summary of Q1 as it relates to Monte Carlo.
To clarify, regarding the mid-teens target for stabilization, does this number incorporate the losses due to construction disruption?
That’s correct. If you consider the cash flow before the construction started, it was roughly $70 million to $80 million, which serves as a reference point.
Great, thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question comes from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, thank you. So Jim, in your prepared comments, when you were discussing the use of capital, it seemed you were hinting towards potential M&A opportunities. Can you confirm if you are actively looking for opportunities, and if something were to come up on the Strip, would you be interested?
First off, I don’t prepare anything, so these are unprepared remarks. I am examining my unplanned remarks and don’t see anything about M&A. Honesty, our focus at MGM Resorts is not on M&A; we are focused on M&A at MGM Growth Properties, and James will address that. Strategically, we like where we are and expect fast-growing free cash generation over the next few years. We have outlined our plans for that cash to our board and investment community, and we intend to remain committed to our course. We remain alert to opportunities in our dynamic industry but clearly are satisfied with our position as a market leader, particularly with our performance in Macau now that we have COTAI.
Okay, thank you for that. Switching gears, could we discuss the promotional environment on the south end of the Strip? How have you observed it changing, perhaps on a daily or weekly basis? I’m also interested in the demand at Mandalay Bay. What measures are you implementing to drive traffic, and how long might it take to improve?
Without a doubt, we were more promotional in the fourth quarter than we would have preferred, and more than we are today. We’ve started releasing a lot of that pressure already.
As Jim mentioned, given the incident on October 1, we had to diversify our promotional strategies in the first nine months of the year. Our team effectively navigated these changes, and there is already a considerable recovery at Mandalay. However, we're still experiencing some residual impact as around 80% of the cancellations from the fourth quarter impacted that period, with some lingering effects in the early part of this year. We expect Mandalay to recover further as time goes on.
I would note that our promotional activity as of February aligns more with last year's approach.
Yes, typically things are lining up pretty similarly, Felicia. The only variable is the CONEXPO, which is presenting some challenges. Overall, we are gradually yielding back to pre-existing levels. Mandalay Bay has felt additional pressure as we took more time to ramp up marketing for that property over several weeks, so there will be modest impact in Q1 and minor effects beyond.
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Looking long-term, referring to the 2016 Analyst Day, could you discuss the biggest drivers affecting your consolidated adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow projections through 2019? Additionally, you have mentioned the goal of recovering prior peak margins on the Strip. Could you detail where those peaks stood and what differences or similarities exist in operations now that could affect the feasibility of achieving that target?
Sure, Steve, this is Dan. Prior peak EBITDA margins on the Strip were around 33%. Based on our trajectory, we're still on track to achieve those levels within the next year, given the guidance provided. If we see unexpected top-line growth, there could be margin upside. However, our margin predictions reflect our current data, cost containment strategies, and the ongoing initiatives we have in place, such as PGP, which should get us back to prior peak levels within 24 months. Last year, we finished just north of 31%, which was slightly higher than anticipated, providing us with a lead on this trajectory. Regarding the puts and takes since the Analyst Day, the biggest change to that model has been around the timing of COTAI. The model originally anticipated COTAI opening around March or April of 2017, which is a significant adjustment. Additionally, we underestimated the impact of Monte Carlo, leading us to be below our projected cash flow. All other Strip properties performed in line or exceeded expectations, such as Bellagio achieving record highs. Our regional properties hit the targets we projected. Thus, the main shift has been COTAI’s timing, which distributes from its growth trajectory that wasn’t accounted for in the original model when created in 2016. Moreover, tax reform would positively affect our free cash flow in '18, '19, and beyond.
To address margins, inflation remains a critical point. Inflation impacts the industry, both negatively on labor and positively in terms of pricing power. If we can enhance our revenues through price adjustments against backdrop expenses, we will likely see margin improvement that wasn't achievable before 2007. Casino hotel companies tend to perform well from a margin perspective in inflationary environments, as pricing adjustments can be instituted promptly against growing expenses, benefitting businesses like ours. This trend appears to be unfolding as we expand our pricing across hotel rates and service fees, likely offsetting inflation pressure on labor and other costs.
That all makes sense. Since you’ve mentioned tax reform benefits, how do you think about its impact on incremental cash flow regarding capital allocation? I recall you previously stated a target leverage ratio of 3.5 times. Does tax reform change that?
No, our leverage targets remain unchanged. We view this as a windfall increase in company cash flow, but our targets don’t shift. We will allocate excess cash towards shareholder returns and growth opportunities while maintaining a disciplined strategy.
Thank you, best of luck this year.
Thanks, Steve.
Thanks, Steve.
Operator
Our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hey, everyone, good morning. As you discuss 2018, you provided color on the top line. However, regarding the 50 to 100 basis points margin guidance for this year, along with the challenges putting you closer to the lower end, could you clarify any cost pressures applicable to the Strip this year aside from the one-timers and previous headwinds from last year?
We are currently negotiating labor agreements.
Yes.
Labor negotiations are scheduled every fourth or fifth year, allowing for discussions to transpire, and we’re currently engaged in these talks with the union, along with other companies on the Strip. Results remain to be seen. We don’t anticipate any unfavorable trends; our expenses are manageable, particularly as we ramp up MGM Springfield, which is looking fantastic and is slated for opening soon, before Labor Day.
I don't foresee any other expense changes this year.
Great, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from John DeCree of Union Gaming. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you. I wanted to discuss the Borgata business in Las Vegas. The slide deck mentioned strength in the international business, and previously, Macau served as an indicator for the Borgata's performance in Las Vegas. Could you provide additional insights on the business in Vegas, and perhaps some anecdotal comments related to the Chinese New Year so far?
I suppose I’ll start, and anyone else can jump in. The high-end segment is currently performing well, and the Borgata business remains strong. In fact, we hosted our major Year of the Dog event at ARIA on Sunday night, filling up our ballroom with 2,900 attendees and over 900 people on our waiting list to join. The overall business tone in town is better than we've seen in many years, and we're encouraged by the level of traffic visiting our properties and those of our competitors.
From my perspective, the linkage between Borgata's operations and Macau has become quite apparent. The momentum growing in Macau is creating a positive impact here as well.
Moreover, we're also witnessing an increase in domestic players within the Borgata mix, a first in our history, which is encouraging in terms of customer diversity and bolstered domestic performance. Additionally, January's Chinese New Year, aligned with the Super Bowl, has helped us fill both our villas and mansions with domestic and Asian clientele.
That’s helpful; I appreciate the insights. As a follow-up, could we examine the domestic gaming business in Las Vegas? Given the inflationary pressures associated with tax reform, I’m curious if your outlook for the domestic gaming side has altered, or do you still anticipate low single-digit growth on the domestic casino floor?
It’s still a bit early to determine; there's positive potential stemming from the tax reform's influence, but it remains early. Considering properties like Detroit and National Harbor could similarly benefit from this change, I believe there’s a positive outlook.
Great, thanks for the questions.
Thanks, John.
Operator
Our next question comes from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. With your 2018 REVPAR guidance of 2% to 4%, could you break down the performance by property or category?
Who wants to tackle that?
Generally, the high end should do well given our luxury properties' performance, and that typically boosts our core properties as well.
In terms of Monte Carlo's transition, it has functioned as a drag in 2017, but as it evolves, it should positively influence our core properties throughout 2018. However, during the first quarter, the largest negative impact was from CON/AGG, particularly affecting core properties that don’t have the same capacity for convention business.
Some major fights and concerts in the second quarter will benefit properties involved, particularly due to their venues hosted at T-Mobile. We anticipate the NBA Summer League, as MGM has become a prominent sponsor. This development will drive increased visitation during typically slower periods. Our team is also prepared for a strong postseason with the Vegas Golden Knights, which could generate further demand during that time. I believe our performance will be widespread, yet our strongest pricing capabilities typically align with our luxury properties. Bellagio and ARIA influence market direction, and our properties can benefit from the pricing strategies they implement.
One point to note is that a percentage increase in resort fees will also favor core properties, helping enhance their from overall market growth.
That’s a valid consideration, given how our core properties have lagged in resort fees compared to competitors; it’s encouraging that we're finally catching up.
That’s helpful; could you confirm what the convention mix for 2017 looked like? Was it near 19.5%, and can we expect that to rise, or would it take a few years?
We wound up right around 19% in 2017, which was our target. 2018 is shaping up to be similar, around that 19% mark. Excluding ARIA, they expect a slight uptick in their convention mix due to added convention space. The MGM Grand expansion will have an impact mainly in 2019 rather than 2018.
Thank you for that.
Thanks, Thomas.
Operator
Our next question comes from Chad Beynon of Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, great. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to revisit the Q1 guidance suggesting a negative 250 basis point margin decline. Given that home loans are declining and the Monte Carlo impact is diminishing, could the 250 basis points reflect simply Dan’s earlier comments about the tough comp from core properties in March as well as what appears to be a challenging table hold? I’m seeking a bit more clarity on that guidance.
Those are the three primary drivers to consider. Yes, the tough comparisons to CON/AGG from last year, the ongoing disruption at Monte Carlo, and hold rates last year being upwards of 25% all contribute to our guidance of down 250 basis points year-on-year. You're aligned in your assessment.
Furthermore, the continued disruption from Monte Carlo impacts pricing strategies throughout Q1; it is something we are addressing currently.
Thanks. Are there updates on Japan? Any milestones or specific dates we should be watching in 2018 regarding catalysts?
What you may have read implies movement in dialogue concerning the gambling addiction countermeasure bill, which would likely be the first issue the diet will consider; funding and identifying problem gaming will be among the priorities. The subsequent implementation act may be what you’re reading about. Current discussions suggest a mid-year discussion in the diet with potential passage by June or July. MGM has been quite active, engaging regularly in local jurisdictions and in Tokyo, positioning ourselves as a key player for development opportunities through partnerships in the market. We are very optimistic about our standing and should the implementation pass, it will initiate a highly competitive RP process where MGM can participate significantly.
Thank you very much.
And can we take one last question?
Operator
Our next question comes from Robin Farley of UBS. Please go ahead.
Great, thanks. Most of my questions have been answered already. Could you share what your expectations are regarding the concession window? Might conversations begin this year prior to the 2020 expiration?
Thank you, Robin. We were honored to host the Chief Executive and most of the cabinet during our MGM COTAI opening on the 13th. I can say we are proud of that event, which received positive feedback from the government regarding the property. We have not yet discussed concession renewal with the government. We believe if we consistently meet the expectations of operators like ourselves, we will be treated fairly. I anticipate discussions surrounding the concession renewal or rebid may occur later this year or the next, but we are not proactively engaging them at this time.
That’s great, thank you.
Before we conclude, I want to extend my sincere gratitude to everyone joining us today. I want to emphasize how proud I am of the MGM team, especially after the events of October 1. We effectively adjusted our approach and utilized our operational and analytical expertise to deliver on strong projections during uncertain times. This shows how far we’ve come, and the robustness of our current business model. We possess strong tools to grasp market trends, and I’m optimistic about our positions in Las Vegas and our regional locations. Our outlook for the Las Vegas market is strong, and we also should address entry by new businesses. The increase in investment encourages job creation, both in construction and permanent jobs, which is beneficial for the community. We appreciate the tax law changes, and the influx of residents moving out of California to Nevada positively impacted housing markets, spend demographics, and overall local expenses. The expansion and renovation of the convention center is also vital and should improve the northern Strip, fueling investment with projects like Fontainebleau and Resorts World, primarily benefiting MGM's offerings such as Mandalay Bay, Luxor, and Excalibur. The upcoming Raiders stadium, with Bill Hornbuckle serving on the board, is another area of enthusiasm, as they’re on track with funding, resulting in shared benefits for us. I firmly believe Las Vegas is positioned for success while MGM takes full advantage of our unique opportunities. We aim to enhance future cash flow, which positions us to serve our shareholders through dividends, capital repurchases, or reinvestment for quality returns. Major opportunities may arise, such as in Japan, and we’re committed to being poised for those situations. Thank you for your continued support for MGM, and we’re available to answer any further questions.
Operator
This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.