MGM Resorts International (MGM) — Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Thanks, Chuck. Welcome to the MGM Resorts International Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet at investors.mgmresorts.com, and we have also furnished our press release on Form 8-K to the SEC. On this call, we will make forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated in these statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements is contained in today's press release and in our periodic filings with the SEC. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or otherwise. During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures when talking about our performance. You can find the reconciliation to GAAP financial measures in our press release and investor presentation, which are available on our website. Finally, this presentation is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Bill Hornbuckle.

Thank you, Howard. I want to start by highlighting a strength that often goes unnoticed, which is MGM's exceptional portfolio diversity. Our global presence in both physical and digital arenas has driven record high consolidated net revenue this quarter. Our aim is to be the leading gaming entertainment company worldwide, and this vision is yielding significant returns as we capitalize on multiple revenue streams globally. The effectiveness of our portfolio diversity strategy is evident this quarter; we have accelerated digital growth, and our record results in China and regional properties have more than compensated for challenges in Las Vegas. We understand that the substantial share buyback completed in recent years needs to be paired with an active growth pipeline to fully unlock our company's value. In the second quarter, our diversity is proving to be the link between the advantages of a reduced share count and growth. We are ready to generate significant value with key upcoming catalysts in BetMGM and Las Vegas, as well as mid- to long-term catalysts in MGM Digital and our development projects, both domestically and internationally. Our BetMGM North America venture recently reported its second quarter results, raising the full year 2025 guidance for the second time since the last earnings call, indicating an EBITDA turnaround of nearly $400 million compared to last year. In iGaming, we've seen strong growth in average monthly active users and key engagement metrics such as active player days, while our sports betting strategy continues to build on the areas that drove profitability in the first quarter, focusing on targeted player acquisition, better management of lower-value players, and retaining more valuable active players, all benefiting from improvements in site performance, discoverability, and speed. With more efficient marketing spending, our incremental revenue flow-through has surged to 66% year-to-date. This successful approach has strengthened our confidence in BetMGM North America's potential to generate $500 million of annual reported EBITDA in the years to come. Our Las Vegas resorts are also set to improve results in the near term, and I want to stress that Las Vegas remains fundamentally robust. We experienced record table games and slot volumes at our luxury properties this quarter. The adjusted EBITDAR decline was isolated to two main factors; over 80% of the decline came from the MGM Grand, where results were influenced by disruptive room remodels and unusually weak performance at two of our value-oriented hotels. On the groups and conventions front, our bookings are showing double-digit growth, supported by a strong 2026 convention calendar, which includes the return of CON/AGG. The Las Vegas Convention Center is investing $1.6 billion to upgrade its legacy campus and expand the West Hall, with completion on track by year-end. We will benefit from increased convention attendance in Las Vegas, particularly due to our expansive luxury offerings. Recently, Las Vegas also celebrated the groundbreaking of a new $1.8 billion MLB stadium at the former site of Tropicana, expected to attract 400,000 additional visitors each year. This development means that venues for major sports leagues like the NFL, NHL, and MLB will all be within a mile of each other, surrounded by MGM properties. Importantly, the dome stadium will provide significant game and entertainment options during mid-week summer periods, enhancing the value of our rooms. Our exclusive partnership with Marriott continues to drive performance through high-quality customers. We remain on track to book 900,000 room nights through this channel and saw a 31% increase in room nights this quarter compared to last year. Marriott customers typically spend about $150 per room night more than other guests. This year, we have averaged over 20,000 room nights booked weekly. The pace has picked up in July, leading to our best week of Marriott bookings just two weeks ago. Our international presence is another near-term growth driver, particularly at MGM China, which recorded outstanding adjusted EBITDAR and captured 16.6% market share in the second quarter, reflecting the largest sequential increase among all concessionaires. Notably, our share increased every month of the quarter, ending June at 1.3 times our fair share of the market. All 28 villas at MGM Macau are now open as of this month, while MGM Cotai has begun converting standard rooms into 63 new suites by the first quarter of 2026, further enhancing the appeal of our properties as preferred destinations for premium mass players. Additionally, our domestic regional operations are thriving, providing stability during volatile times, achieving our best second quarter results in both net revenue and slot wins. Three of our regional properties set record highs for net revenue, and we observed strong performance across gaming, hotel, and food and beverage segments. Customers have positively responded to our targeted capital improvements, evident in New Jersey, where we transformed the former Water Club into the now MGM Tower at Borgata. Since May, this upgrade has been enhanced by a premium Asian gaming and VIP experience, featuring a new bar and restaurant. The new 25,000 square foot gaming area includes 51 tables, gaming salons, and a high-limit section. The response to our calculated capital spending has been encouraging, driving double-digit gross gaming revenue growth and significantly outperforming the market since its launch. Beyond our immediate catalysts, we have mid- and long-term developments that are progressing meaningfully each quarter, including MGM Digital. Our consolidated international digital business, excluding our BetMGM North America venture, has shown solid improvement, notably achieving near breakeven performance when excluding our investment in Brazil. Our partnership in BetMGM Brazil with Grupo Globo continues to offer valuable flexibility for marketing and investment, and our launch is making excellent progress, with key metrics improving, bolstering our optimistic long-term outlook for the Brazilian market. Domestically, towards the end of the second quarter, we launched MGM's live studio on the MGM Grand gaming floor, and the content produced from our live dealer studio is now available in seven countries, serving our international operations and being monetized to other online operators. Earlier this month, we introduced our own Sportsbook product in a second market, facilitated by our acquisition of Tipico's U.S. technology platform, with integration into our internal tech stack progressing as planned. On the development front, the first pylon was poured in Japan earlier this month. Once MGM Osaka opens in 2030, we will be the sole licensee and operator, which is significant given Japan’s strong tourism industry, appetite for gaming, and a population exceeding 120 million. Considering these factors and how similar metrics influence other Asian gaming destinations, we believe MGM Osaka has the potential to yield multibillion-dollar revenues annually. In Dubai, progress is also accelerating with an anticipated opening in the second half of 2028. In New York, we submitted our application in June and are optimistic about being awarded one of the three gaming licenses to be issued in December. Few companies can manage these projects individually, but our unmatched scope, scale, and international experience enable us to pursue them all concurrently while maintaining significant liquidity and a strong balance sheet. Achieving record high consolidated net revenues is a testament to the tremendous efforts of all our employees across all business segments. It is worth noting that we achieved another record gold NPS score in the second quarter despite ongoing room renovations at the MGM Grand. It is indeed an exhilarating time at our resorts, and I will now turn it over to Jonathan for further insights into our performance.

Thanks very much, Bill. I'd like to also express my appreciation to all of our employees for their hard work and commitment to excellence, whether on the front lines delivering exceptional service or behind the scenes, innovating new solutions, their collective contributions continue to raise the bar every quarter. We're very fortunate here at MGM to have a diverse portfolio of assets that constitute such a deep growth pipeline. The BetMGM North America venture continued its momentum into the second quarter with revenue from operations up 36%, resulting in second quarter EBITDA of $86 million. iGaming grew 29% in the second quarter despite no new state launches driven by strong player acquisition, attractive payback economics, and healthy engagement activity. Sports betting top line grew 56% in the quarter, benefiting from the repositioning toward the premium mass customer, as well as targeted marketing and refined player segmentation efforts. Omnichannel efforts also continue to gain momentum. Our March Madness activations fueled a record number of Nevada first-time depositors while the Single app Single Wallet feature helped drive 30% growth in Nevada monthly actives. As mentioned on yesterday's call from BetMGM, 2025 guidance was raised to at least $2.7 billion of net revenue and at least $150 million of EBITDA. I’m also happy to announce that BetMGM reporting will be aligned with MGM reporting beginning in the upcoming third quarter, thus no longer reporting 1 month in arrears going forward. We can cue the applause on the call. Here in Las Vegas, the market remains fundamentally sound. During the second quarter and now into July, performance on the weekends has been solid as we've been operating near capacity in our hotels across the spectrum. Our luxury offerings in Vegas maintained rate integrity, with flat table volume increasing about 4%, and several properties reporting second quarter records for net revenue. The year-over-year adjusted EBITDAR decline in Las Vegas of $72 million was primarily confined to the MGM Grand and to a much lesser degree, midweek performance at the Luxor and Excalibur. The MGM Grand represented $60 million of the difference with the vast majority due to impacts from the room remodel and hold. When you exclude the impact of the MGM Grand property on our results, Las Vegas adjusted EBITDAR decreased about 2% in the second quarter. The lower midweek visitation in our more value-oriented properties has continued in July, but we're taking advantage of this dynamic by pulling forward the MGM Grand room remodel timeline. Based on this accelerated timeline, we now expect the remodel to be completed by the end of October, which will allow us to capitalize on these refreshed rooms in November in time for F1's return to Las Vegas and for the holiday season. When you consider we've seen positive bookings in 3 of the last 4 weeks and solid bookings of groups and conventions that are in place for later in the year, we're optimistic about restoring a growth trajectory in Las Vegas during the fourth quarter that will carry on into 2026. In Macau, adjusted EBITDA rose by 3%, resulting in a record quarter as visitation, player counts, and premium player counts rose at both properties. The focus on premium players is a simple strategy, but difficult to execute, yet our team continues to capitalize on all opportunities. In July, we soft opened the Alpha Club at MGM Macau, an ultra-high-end offering that opened with 20 tables. We continue to fine-tune the offering and add amenities with an official opening scheduled ahead of the October Golden Week. The regional properties had a particularly solid performance in the second quarter with record 2Q net revenue and a 7% increase in adjusted EBITDAR. MGM Digital, our consolidated international digital business that does not include the BetMGM North America venture, grew its top line by 14%, as the BetMGM brand extension has been driving improved results in existing markets, including the U.K., Netherlands, and Sweden. Marketing and bonus optimization combined with OpEx management have been strong drivers of our cost management efforts. The brands we're investing in are beginning to achieve meaningful scale, and BetMGM brands are achieving all-time highs as they grow. Our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA expectations remain consistent with last year at MGM Digital. We're on track to achieve over $150 million in EBITDA enhancements in 2025, the majority in Las Vegas with continued focus on automation and other initiatives in response to customer preferences. We've identified other opportunities to keep us on track as we champion a continuous improvement mindset across the business. During the quarter, we repurchased 8 million shares for $217 million, all of which took place in April. The pace of our repurchases has slowed as we focus our capital deployment on our development projects. Our share count is nearly 45% lower than it was when we began this buying program, and we've received Board approval for the ability to repurchase another $2 billion of shares. Finally, we continue to see meaningful value in the current share price. When you strip out the value of MGM China at market and assign a consensus value to the BetMGM North America venture, which we still view as very conservative given the current trajectory, you end up with an implied multiple of 3.4x trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA, to say nothing of the value of MGM Digital, a business capable of $1 billion in run rate top line with double-digit EBITDA margins. In other words, there is an active accelerating growth pipeline that when paired with a nearly halved share count together will unlock meaningful value that is not reflected in our current valuation. I'll turn it back to Bill.

Thanks, Jonathan. Before we get to questions, operator, I'd like to take maybe a step back and refocus more holistically on what we're up to in the strategy. For us, it's to win the greatest share of the world's growing gaming market. MGM Resorts is the only global operator with the ability to converge gaming and hospitality with entertainment and sports, whether physical or digital and deliver accelerated diversified growth at scale, and we're uniquely positioned to develop synergies across all of those businesses. Our operational focus and calculated investments are paying off. Everywhere we operate, we're winning, particularly in premium and luxury. In Macau, we have been and continue to earn more than our fair share, and that continues in the month of July. In digital, we've turned the corner on both product and cash generation fronts with huge upside to capture. And in Las Vegas, with the advent of A's Stadium, we're seated in the middle of the golden triangle, ensuring MGM is uniquely advantaged by major events, especially sports. Internationally, we are the sole licensee in Japan with 120 million plus people with a proven propensity to game. The point is, we have the size and scale to see meaningful gaming opportunities anywhere in the world. As we look into the future, we remain very excited about that. Obviously, there's been a great deal of talk and focus on Las Vegas. Again, I want to take a step back and think of this holistically. Over the last 30 years, the CAGR in Las Vegas and GGR has been close to 5%. We host many of the world's largest events and conventions in a city that is not readily duplicatable. This fall alone, you'll see Canelo/Crawford fight in Allegiant Stadium, one of the biggest fights Las Vegas has seen in the last 10 years. In September, Paul McCartney will be performing, and F1 in November with pre-sales better than they've ever been, will be hosted here again in our community. Long-term, college football championships come our way in January of '27 and the Final Four in 2028. Las Vegas is as solid as ever and MGM couldn't be better positioned to benefit from it. With that, operator, let's go to questions.

I wanted to start with the MGM Grand. Is $65 million still the right number to think about impact for the disruption? If it is, how much of that has been hit so far in Q1, Q2?

Sure, Barry. Yes, that is still a good number. The only difference is now we'll be experiencing it really through just the 9 months of this year as opposed to the full year. And just on the second part of that question, I would say through the first 6 months by our accounting, it's been about $40 million. We would expect that full remaining amount through the conclusion of the project in October.

Got it. That's really helpful. Bill, it sounds like you somewhat addressed this, but clearly, we've heard concerns about pricing and value impacting Vegas and MGM. Maybe just spend a minute addressing that in more detail, please.

Yes. Look, I think if you think about our luxury products and our offerings, you'd see like ADR up in Bellagio. Corey, help me, 4% for the quarter, something like that?

Yes.

Yes. And so you would see $250,000 play and above across the first 6 months of the year, up 25%. You'd see slot revenue up for the year, particularly at the premium levels. When it comes to that, I don't think that's a real issue. I think when it gets to our value-oriented properties, properties that focus on all that's going on in the global economy/U.S. economy, there is impact. But given the scale and scope of what we do and how we offer it, while real, and we particularly experienced it in the summer, we are excited about fourth quarter and particularly what happens into 2026.

I wanted to just go back to digital and appreciate the update that we had just a few days ago in your opening remarks about it. But I would love to get just another layer of insight into sort of how much cross benefit there is. In the past, you've given us digital sign-ups for the loyalty program, etc. How is all of that evolving given the strength?

Gary, you want to?

Sure. Well, look, I think one of the things that Bill touched on certainly is the progress we're seeing in Nevada. It's probably one of the big highlights of the omnichannel advantages that we're seeing, where we've seen about 30% growth in Nevada monthly actives and a 4x increase in the number of Nevada actives who continue to play with BetMGM once they go home. So the power of our Vegas funnel, if you will, and turning that into real customers for BetMGM is really a hallmark part of the omnichannel program. We also are aggressively investing in activating players during tentpole events here in Las Vegas. Jonathan alluded to what we did during March Madness as an example. On the content side, we're also seeing the ability to leverage things like our MGM Live Studio, being able to begin to provision exclusive and proprietary content for players, which is another advantage of what we uniquely can do as an omnichannel operator.

Understood. And if I can, in another direction, in the past, you've made some comments around the arrangement you have with Bonvoy and its benefits. Any update there?

No. Look, I think the update is that despite everything happening, it's on track to exceed 900,000 room nights this year. The quarterly performance has been excellent. I mentioned in my opening comments a couple of weeks ago that we reached an all-time high of 25,000 bookings in one week. Those customers continue to spend significantly more than average, almost reaching $150 in revenue per occupied room. Everything is looking positive. They have engaged with the convention space alongside us in a substantial manner. While we have 13 global sales office representatives, they have 1,300. We’re feeling very optimistic about the future. Approximately 30% to 40% of those customers are redeeming free rooms and using their points. This gives us access to a great leisure customer base.

I do want to ask again about Vegas, the visitation numbers for the Strip came out today, as I'm sure you saw, and they were quite bad for June. It seems like leisure heavy summer fit customers are you gaining share from Bonvoy and some of the other things you're doing. But maybe, Bill, if you could just take a step back and talk about the Strip as a whole. What you're seeing in the near term in that fit customer in the next 4 to 12 weeks booking trends? What gives you confidence that when convention and group comes back in the summer heat abates, that fit customer will come back in the fall?

I think referencing my earlier comments, history gives us confidence. We started to see about a 9-week decline in bookings starting in May. Now over the last month, those bookings have increased. For the last 4 weeks in a row, we've seen an increase in bookings. That gives us confidence as we think about August, September, and into October, remembering that the booking cycle here is short. I mean 50% of our bookings come within 30-odd days. This is particularly in the summer, reactionary. July will replicate June in a meaningful way. But we have great confidence in the fourth quarter and beyond based on programming conventions and just our Marriott relationship.

In June and July this year, we had some pretty big groups cycle out of the city. We know that they will be back in future years. You also had the convention center under construction. A few of our competitors had some of their space under construction. It was just a unique summer regarding the convention business that we haven't seen in the past.

The first half total is about $80 million. It's about similar for the first half and the second half of the year, and these are coming from a lot of different areas. They include some of the benefit that we've gotten from digital check-in from our AI-driven chatbot has helped, of course. We have made some moves in some other revenue areas as well. We're doing more in our quick service restaurants with ordering using barcodes and the rest. It's probably 70 to 80 different initiatives that will come together to drive this improvement work.

Maybe one to shift gears on Macau and another solid quarter for MGM China. High level on the market, we've seen gaming revenue accelerate in May and really in June. Curious if you have opinions on what's driving that acceleration market-wide if it's some economic improvements or just the event schedule and calendar and how sustainable might this GGR acceleration be for the market?

Yes. This is Kenny. We're happy to see a growing market driven by premium mass. Macau is not only event-driven, with customers coming for concerts, but more customers are coming for refreshing experiences and quality products and services. For MGM China, we continue to see a strong trend in July; our performance is pretty robust. We see strong volumes across nearly all business segments and solid market share and margin. I would say that in the entire market, we expect a promising summer.

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate the color. Maybe big picture, Jonathan, can you update us on the dividend policy at MGM China? It's certainly GGR EBITDA ramping and sounds like MGM China is continuing to gain share. It's a great performance. How are you thinking about the balance sheet in MGM China and dividend policy as it relates to MGM?

I will make a comment on the dividend policy at MGM China, and then I'll invite Hubert or Kenny to speak to the balance sheet there. The Board just approved, it was in March or May, a dividend policy of 50% of distributable net income, which is important to MGM Resorts as such a large shareholder. That dividend income approaches $150 million to $200 million a year. It's a substantial source of cash flow for the company and I think an appropriate level for MGM China.

Yes. Earlier this year, we changed our dividend policy to a regular dividend of up to 50% payout, plus special dividend, if any. The Board will review our cash flow position and make decisions considering development projects in the pipeline.

Curious on MGM's view on the Big Beautiful Bill, just the impact here on the gambling community as it relates to what's going on here. The tax deduction limitation is impactful, especially concerning VIP players and some of the professional players who may bounce around various properties.

Shaun, let me start off and then I'll turn it over to Jonathan to discuss tax impacts. We met with the House Committee Chair last week, focused on the 90% issue of losses. He has a willingness to help us work on this with Congressman Dina Titus. We don't think that's a fair deal. You could win $1,000, lose $1,000 and still pay a 10% tax on those losses. We are focused on that as a starting point.

Just a couple of other items to watch. No tax on tips, no tax on over time, which is neutral relative to the company and won't impact our cost structure. The bonus depreciation is a big deal for us. We invest heavily in our properties; the MGM Grand renovation is the latest example. This is one reason we updated our tax forecast from a liability of approximately $100 million to a positive refund of $100 million in 2025. That's a meaningful change because of this bill.

Can you walk us through where we sit on the buyback strategy? You indicated most was done in April, and the pace has slowed a lot. Still a large authorization, and shares are valued. But there's also a big growth pipeline with New York and Japan coming up.

We entered the year 2025 with a cautious approach towards share repurchases due to the development pipeline we have. However, we saw a real dislocation in price during the first quarter. We felt compelled to act aggressively. We did about $700 million in the first quarter that continued into April. We don't have a certain leverage ceiling we are managing, but our leverage is about 4.5x lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA. This leaves room to return some capital to shareholders while maintaining our development pipeline.

Great updates this week from Adam and Gary on the JV BetMGM side. I wanted to ask about the digital business. Can you talk broadly about where we are with investment, particularly in Brazil or other markets?

Yes, certainly. Jonathan mentioned in the prepared remarks that in the absence of the investments we're making in Brazil, we're beginning to achieve breakeven in the rest of the MGM Digital portfolio. The bulk of growth is coming from the BetMGM branded business internationally, which we've invested heavily in over the last 1.5 years. We see returns from that and no concerns regarding the TAM and long-term health in the Brazilian market. Our relationship with Globo continues to provide us tremendous operating flexibility that our competitors don’t have. We're seeing a positive trajectory in Brazil.

Going back to Macau, the margins in the back half of '24 were around that 25% range. Can you talk about if we should think about a higher margin? If holding market share above the 15% range could result in even higher margins?

We feel confident in our ability to maintain market share, which we have guided for the past few years, around mid-teens, while maintaining EBITDA margins in the mid-20s to high 20s. As we indicated, we expect to see strong performance in July with solid market share and margin.

Our focus on premium mass is consistent, and we have products to support that strategy in the near future. We expect our margin to remain stable in the high 20s range.

I want to go back to the Strip. It's been declining pretty much all year. To your credit, you've managed through this impressively. Is there anything you can pinpoint as driving this decline in visitation? Is it international inbound? Is it a different type of customer not flying? How much leverage do you have to adapt further in this environment?

International visitation has been an issue, not only for Las Vegas but for a lot of destinations. We've seen a decline earlier in the year, particularly from Canada. We've noted that inbound seats are down about 6%, mostly driven by Spirit with engine challenges. Southern California this summer has been quieter than usual. We're confident about attracting premium customers, and we follow the headlines to help with our value proposition. Las Vegas is still an amazing value, which I know has been questioned. It's comparable to rates I saw 20 years ago. At the end of the day, we need to change any negative narratives and focus on our value offerings.

In terms of third quarter assumptions, we're seeing similar impacts as we experienced in June regarding midweek performance for value-oriented properties and the MGM Grand impact. The insurance proceeds of $37 million from last year is an important context for this. Some of these EBITDA enhancement activities continue to benefit us in the third quarter.

I want to ask another question on that Vegas FIT cohort. Wondering if you guys have done anything to stimulate that FIT improvement. Have you seen any peers out there doing aggressive promotional work, cutting resort fees, etc.?

Regarding the FIT, we are aggressive and priced accordingly, but we want to maintain our market-leading status. Occupancy is down 3 or 4 points for the quarter. Given our customer database, we have seen fruitful results. We won't panic and our programs won’t indicate that. We will be focused on getting that value equation right.

A general assumption is that we can bring 50% of revenue increase to the bottom line in Las Vegas. Conversely, if we have revenue declines, it depends on where it originates, but 50% could fade through cost management.

I noticed CapEx moved lower for the year, which was surprising given some benefits from the Big Beautiful Bill. What's driving the reduction? And can you remind us of the timing of some major projects on the horizon?

The reduction was due to refining the capital plan throughout the year; we don’t have notable projects that have stopped or been changed. This often happens during the year due to tightening budgets. Major projects include the renovation of Aria rooms, which we look to start in the late second to early third quarter of 2026.

We've also launched OPERA Cloud for our hotel system, which was delayed somewhat due to external circumstances. Let's move forward confidently as we see excitement building up from recent product launches.

As we approach major projects coming online in the late third quarter and early fourth quarter, they're pretty significant across properties, ensuring value creation is front of mind. There's not a single property without exciting projects.

Pricing was reassessed for this year. We believe we got it right; ticket sales are robust, indicating positive numbers for the Formula 1 event. The race this year will feature two events, enhancing our internal promotions and Las Vegas overall.

We matched a $1 million sale at the Fountain Club yesterday.

Thank you all for joining us today. I know it's getting late. I'll be in New York at the Bank of America Conference in September. I hope to see many of you there. We look forward to discussing our 3Q results with you all in a few months. Have a great end of the summer and thank you for your attendance today.