MGM Resorts International
MGM Resorts International is an S&P 500® global gaming and entertainment company with national and international destinations featuring best-in-class hotels and casinos, state-of-the-art meetings and conference spaces, incredible live and theatrical entertainment experiences, and an extensive array of restaurant, nightlife and retail offerings. MGM Resorts creates immersive, iconic experiences through its suite of Las Vegas-inspired brands. The MGM Resorts portfolio encompasses 31 unique hotel and gaming destinations globally, including some of the most recognizable resort brands in the industry. The Company's 50/50 venture, BetMGM, LLC, offers sports betting and online gaming in North America through market-leading brands, including BetMGM and partypoker, and the Company's subsidiary, LV Lion Holding Limited, offers sports betting and online gaming through market-leading brands in several jurisdictions throughout Europe and Brazil. The Company is currently pursuing targeted expansion in Asia through an integrated resort development in Japan. Through its Focused on What Matters philosophy, MGM Resorts commits to creating a more sustainable future, while striving to make a bigger difference in the lives of its employees, guests and in the communities where it operates. The global employees of MGM Resorts are proud of their company for being recognized as one of FORTUNE® Magazine's World's Most Admired Companies®.
Current Price
$37.66
+3.15%GoodMoat Value
$47.97
27.4% undervaluedMGM Resorts International (MGM) — Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Call Summary AI-generated
The 30-second take
MGM had a mixed quarter. While their business in Macau and their online betting venture did very well, their Las Vegas hotels struggled with lower room prices and fewer visitors. The company is selling one property and decided not to pursue a big project in New York, choosing instead to focus on its most profitable opportunities and even buy back its own stock.
Key numbers mentioned
- Northfield Park sale price: $546 million
- Las Vegas EBITDAR: $601 million
- MGM China market share: 15.5%
- Expected BetMGM distribution to MGM: at least $100 million in Q4
- MGM Digital revenue growth: 23%
- Japan project financing: USD 300 million equivalent
What management is worried about
- Las Vegas faced headwinds from decreased occupancy and room rates, particularly at Luxor and Excalibur.
- The company is concerned about the impact of canceled airline routes, including from the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy, on Las Vegas visitation.
- They cited a "softer" operating environment in Las Vegas affecting food and beverage volumes.
- Increased investment in Brazil is expected to push MGM Digital's full-year EBITDA losses toward $100 million.
What management is excited about
- BetMGM will begin returning cash to MGM Resorts, with an expected initial distribution of at least $100 million in the fourth quarter.
- MGM China achieved record third-quarter EBITDAR and is pacing to a 16.5% market share in October.
- Group and convention bookings for 2026 are pacing up, with a strong start expected in the first quarter.
- The sale of Northfield Park at a 6.6x multiple demonstrates the value of their assets.
- The Japan integrated resort project is under construction and is expected to generate a high-teens return.
Analyst questions that hit hardest
- John DeCree (CBRE) - Reason for exiting New York project: Management gave a detailed, multi-factor explanation citing a high tax burden, increased competition, and a last-minute change in license term.
- Stephen Grambling (Morgan Stanley) - Paths to unlock shareholder value: The response was broad, covering potential digital business unlocks, dividends from Macau and BetMGM, and the strength of Las Vegas, without committing to a specific "simplification" path.
- Chad Beynon (Macquarie) - Timing and returns on MGM Grand renovations: The answer was cautious, focusing on the need to first refill rooms and indicating returns would come "over the long haul" rather than immediately.
The quote that matters
We lost control of the narrative over the summer. I think we would all agree to that in hindsight.
William Hornbuckle — CEO
Sentiment vs. last quarter
Omit this section as no direct comparison to a previous quarter's transcript or summary was provided in the prompt.
Original transcript
Thanks. Welcome to the MGM Resorts International Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet at investors.mgmresorts.com, and we've also furnished our press release on Form 8-K to the SEC. On this call, we will make forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated in these statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements is contained in today's press release and in our periodic filings with the SEC. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or otherwise. During the call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures when talking about our performance. You can find the reconciliation to GAAP financial measures in our press release and investor presentation, which are available on our website. Finally, this presentation is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Bill Hornbuckle.
Thank you, Howard, and good afternoon, everyone. Our industry is constantly changing, and MGM is always moving forward, proactively navigating with agility and allocating capital with discipline to best position our company for future success. One example of our capital discipline was a challenging decision to withdraw our application for a commercial license in Yonkers, New York. We dedicated significant time and resources over the last several years to this project, adjusted along the way with our best efforts to make the project work for all parties involved. We have been and continue to be a proud partner of the city of Yonkers and the State of New York. We remain committed to operating the property in its current format and believe it will continue to enjoy success serving customers in Yonkers and surrounding communities. Also, we have been consistent in our focus on premium, best-in-class, market-leading integrated resort operations and have held true to our message that we will optimize our portfolio when the right value opportunities are presented. This was the case for Northfield Park, which we are selling for $546 million in cash. You may recall we acquired the operations in 2019 for $275 million. We have grown the business and created significant value over the last six years. Importantly, the sale multiple of 6.6x represents a significant premium to MGM's current share price, which values the opco business at less than 3x. This company's diversity is also a true benefit, and amid all the headlines or concerns about Las Vegas and the general consumer, MGM's consolidated net revenues grew this quarter, thanks to the geographic and channel diversity of our business. I've spoken in the past about the evolution of Las Vegas and how, over the last 30 years, the market has grown at a CAGR of over 4%. Of course, that growth ebbs and flows over shorter measurements of time. This summer, we heard from some of our guests about value in Las Vegas, and we responded by making adjustments to ensure a rationalized premium value experience across all of our properties. We partnered with the destination on a fabulous five-day sale during which we sold over 300,000 room nights, nearly double our typical pace, reflecting the strong demand that exists for our experiences. There are additional factors supporting the current visitation dynamics, including international visitation, particularly from Canada, Southern California drive traffic, and the recent Spirit Airlines bankruptcy resulting in several canceled routes. We are still expecting to receive over 40 million visitors to Las Vegas in 2025. While we don't expect the dynamic to change overnight, we are proactively working to create initiatives and draw incremental visitation. Despite these headwinds, several of our luxury properties generated record 3Q slot win. As we look to the fourth quarter, we see signs of stabilization as the luxury market segment continues exhibiting strength, groups and conventions are returning, and all MGM guest rooms will be upgraded and back online. F1 ticketing presales, particularly for the Bellagio Fountain Club, are pacing higher compared to the prior year, all of which puts us on solid footing as we approach 2026. Over 90% of our target groups and conventions are contracted for next year, and the first quarter starts off strong with Conag continuing into the year with other citywide events. We also built off the 900,000 room nights we are facing through our Marriott partnership this year. October is shaping up to be the strongest room night month ever for forward bookings originating from the Marriott channel. We'll have a full year in 2026 to benefit from the group and convention initiatives launched in the second quarter this year that will allow meeting planners and attendees to earn Marriott Bonvoy loyalty perks. In the meantime, we continue maintaining an oversized share of room nights and rates relative to our Las Vegas competition. As visitation ramps up in Las Vegas, we fully expect our advantage will be maximized by the outside efforts of our employees who achieved our highest-ever third-quarter gold plus NPS scores despite the continuing disruptions from MGM throughout the quarter, which, again, now has ended. Our teams in the regional markets drove another quarter of solid results. Several regional properties achieved record 3Q total revenue and EBITDAR. The regional operations, as a whole, generated all-time record slot win this quarter. The targeted capital to create and elevate VIP experiences at Borgata also played a notable role again as casino GGR growth outpaced the market during the quarter, and the Borgata posted all-time high table games drop and slot win. In Macau, even a brief closure caused by a typhoon wasn't enough to stop the positive momentum as MGM China achieved record 3Q EBITDAR. Our contributions are leading Macau's evolution as an entertainment destination, including the Macau 2049 Residency Show at MGM Cotai and the POLY MGM Museum at MGM Macau, all while focusing on understanding our customers, particularly our focus on the premium mass segment. The high end continues to drive market growth, and quarter-to-date, we've seen a great response to the Alpha Gaming Club at MGM Macau, which officially opened in late September. Similar to the elevated experience provided by MGM Cotai's Matching 1, MGM Macau's 3,500 square meter Alpha Gaming Club includes nearly 30 tables, a dedicated restaurant, cigar lounge, and is located just below the newly designed alpha villas. With more non-gaming and entertainment events taking place in Macau, customers now have more reasons to visit and continue to drive growth in the market. The latter two drove accelerated revenue growth for this segment, which in aggregate, grew the top line by 23% this quarter and saw priority market collectivity growing in line with TAM or higher. Our European BetMGM reached a new all-time revenue high in 3Q, with improved profitability driven by customer growth and market share gains. Even though the success has been offset by increased investment in Brazil, we are seeing quarter-over-quarter growth with healthy player fundamentals. Notably, growth has been driven around the key metrics of retention, which is exceeding even some of our healthy mature markets. We have a great relationship with our local media partner, Grupo Globo, and are taking a disciplined investment approach for long-term brand positioning and profitability. We expect to gain market share and reduce our gross spend in the future, and MGM Digital has an opportunity for $1 billion in revenue with a significant margin, driving double-digit returns on those investments. Progress in Japan continues for a 2030 opening, and we remain confident in our ability to generate a high-teens return at the time of opening, particularly as the only integrated resort in Japan, a country of over 120 million people. As of early this month, all elements of this project were under construction, and at one time, there were 60 to 80 cranes and other pieces of heavy equipment on site. We also recently entered a USD 300 million equivalent yen-denominated credit facility at very attractive rates to support our funding commitment to MGM Osaka. Dubai also continues to make progress with an expected opening date in the second half of 2028. With that, I will now hand it over to Jonathan to provide additional detail on our performance this quarter.
Thanks, Bill. And I'd like to echo my appreciation to all of our employees throughout our operations globally for their hard work and dedication. The effort does not go unnoticed and truly is the driver behind everything MGM achieves. This quarter, the Las Vegas segment reported $601 million in EBITDAR, down $130 million year-over-year. The bridge to that shortfall includes three main parts: there was $27 million in decreased business interruption proceeds together with an increase in insurance expense due to increased reserves; $25 million in disruption from the MGM Grand room renovation; and $78 million from the impact on operations, primarily related to occupancy and ADRs. Roughly half of that operations impact can be attributed to Luxor and Excalibur, and $6 million more can be attributed to lower hold year-over-year. The balance is attributed to softer ADRs and a decrease in occupancy, which affected volumes in food and beverage in some of our properties. This operating environment has provided an opportunity for us to focus on our cost containment efforts, and we've been able to reduce certain costs alongside top-line fluctuations. Net revenue in Las Vegas declined 7%, but we managed expenses down accordingly where possible, including FTEs that also decreased by 7%. As we look into the fourth quarter, we're seeing improving room rates. We also have the benefit of all MGM Grand rooms online and newly upgraded in time for the group and convention season. We're seeing strong group demand in November and December, driving stabilization in our business. As we look to next year, the 2026 group and convention channel has the ability to drive growth. Currently, future bookings are pacing up in all outer years, while attrition and cancellations are in line with historical averages. Regional operations had another steady quarter as we grew net revenues modestly. EBITDAR was down $4 million related to a decrease in business interruption proceeds of $6 million year-over-year. Beyond that impact, the results were very solid. MGM China continued its impressive run with record third quarter EBITDAR despite an estimated $12 million typhoon-related impact in September. We also ended the quarter with a record market share of 15.5%. We continue to benefit from MGM China's strong cash flows with an $85 million dividend paid to MGM Resorts in September. As we look to the fourth quarter in Macau, we experienced year-over-year growth across segments during the Golden Week holiday period with visitation up 11% and total win up 20%. For the month of October, we're pacing to a 16.5% market share and well over $100 million in EBITDA. Our BetMGM North American venture reported outstanding results and also announced that prior to the end of the calendar year, it will begin distributing cash back to MGM Resorts with the expectation of doing so on a quarterly basis going forward. We expect to receive at least $100 million in the fourth quarter from our $630 million total investment with more to come. The business model is proving itself, as within just the last 12 months, we've witnessed the evolution from positive EBITDA inflection to solid growth trajectory, and now to a business generating ample cash capable of funding growth and cash distributions. MGM Digital reported revenue growth of 23% during the quarter, while segment EBITDA was a loss of $23 million. For the full year, we now expect MGM Digital to have EBITDA losses that could approach $100 million, given our increased investment in Brazil. Though keep in mind, the actual contribution is consistent with our stake in the Brazil venture, which is roughly 50%. The venture has seen encouraging growth quarter-over-quarter throughout the year in active players, deposits, and GGR. In our fourth quarter initiatives, we're focusing on launching our in-house Sportsbook and continuing to increase the scale of the business, focusing on efficient returns. In Japan, construction continues to make progress. We've recently raised a yen-denominated Term Loan A at the MGM Resorts level equivalent to USD 300 million at a borrowing cost of approximately 2.5% as of this month. This facility also has the ability to upsize to $450 million, and we're already receiving incremental interest. We'll use the proceeds from this issuance to cover our equity contributions for MGM Osaka at least through next summer. Finally, we continue to see significant value in our share price. This quarter, we were able to provide yet another transaction precedent to further evidence the attractive valuation when you strip out the value of MGM China at market value and assign a consensus value to the BetMGM North America venture, which we still view as very conservative given the current trajectory. You end up with an implied multiple of under 3x trailing 12-month asset EBITDA, to say nothing of the value of MGM Digital, a business that's capable of $1 billion in run rate top line with double-digit EBITDA margins. This compares to the 6.6x announced sale multiple for Northfield Park's operations in Ohio, which, if applied across the board to our brick-and-mortar business, inclusive of Vegas—which arguably deserves a higher multiple than the regionals—would imply a share price of approximately $60. I'll open it back to Bill.
Thanks, Jonathan. Fairly, I thumbed over a page, which I would like to spend a second commenting about our digital business before we take your questions. I know a few weeks ago, you all heard BetMGM's venture reported strong third-quarter results and raised our full-year guidance for the second time this year, increasing 2025 EBITDA guidance to approximately $200 million. This represents an EBITDA increase of roughly $450 million in just one year without any new jurisdictions. Importantly, BetMGM will start returning capital to MGM Resorts with an expected initial cash distribution of at least $100 million in the fourth quarter. I also want to follow up on BetMGM's recent comments about prediction markets. For decades, the gaming industry has been highly regulated at the state level. This intense scrutiny has been essential to ensuring the integrity of the gaming industry and, in the case of sports betting, helped to identify potentially irregular activity. This is not the time to back away from these high standards. Gaming historically has been, and should continue to be, a highly regulated industry with safeguards in place to protect consumers and promote integrity. I also want to take a moment and thank our Chief Operating Officer, Corey Sanders, who will be retiring at the end of the year, making this his last earnings call. I'm sure many of you on this call spoke to Corey frequently throughout his tenure. It's impossible to overstate what Corey has meant to this company over the last 30-plus years. As a person and as a leader, Corey understands the importance of caring for employees and treating people with respect. We all want to thank you, Corey, for your dedication, your service, and your leadership and let you know that you will be deeply missed. In closing, I want to stress that MGM is the only global operator across physical and digital channels, converging gaming and hospitality with entertainment and sports, delivering diversified growth at scale. We have proven to be disciplined allocators of capital and will look at any opportunities with attractive returns, including share buybacks. In Las Vegas, it's worth repeating, we are focused on what we can control and are well positioned to adapt given the range and diversity of our luxury offerings. We see stabilization in the fourth quarter and growth in 2026 and beyond. Over the long run, we see a measured supply outlook, a growing local population, expanding entertainment infrastructure, rising demand for live entertainment and luxury, and we remain very bullish on Las Vegas. Now operator, if we could open it up for questions. Thank you.
Operator
And our first question will come from John DeCree with CBRE.
I'm sure we'll talk quite a bit about Las Vegas, but maybe to start with your decision to exit New York. Obviously, it was such a focus for you for a while. Bill, I know you gave some prepared remarks, but curious if you could elaborate. Was it just investment sizing? You put out a press release, but anything else you could kind of tell us there? My follow-up with the swing in liquidity: how should we think about MGM's kind of return hurdles for investment going forward with New York not quite penciling out?
Sure. Look, there wasn't originally a concern with the investment, and I think most of you know this. Between ourselves and resorts, we basically had a guarantee to—whether we did the tax or not—we had to make whole on the education fund, and we had to make whole for the horsemen. Ultimately, we struck a deal with the city of Yonkers, which meant we would have had a minimum tax of about $400 million. So that was our first hurdle. We knew that, but that remained a large hurdle. As we then began to understand the landscape, particularly as it looked more and more like where the competitive set would land, it put further pressure on the deal and the numbers. The thing that concerned us probably the most was, at the end, when we thought we were buying for a 30-year license and were told it was 15, and this was done after we made an original submission. That was concerning because if not for that, then what else? While we initially liked the return, it got tighter and tighter so much so that, given overall market conditions, we think it's capital best spent in some other location and some other opportunity.
And John, it's Jonathan. On your second question regarding our return thresholds: given present circumstances with our share price, our return thresholds are pretty darn high. I mean, we can capture free cash yield just by repurchasing our own shares. I don't have the math in front of me, but it's probably 25% or 30%. One investment we're very excited about is our project in Japan, and despite Sarah's great efforts in securing this yen-denominated facility, which will get us through next summer, we'll be investing in that project in late '26, '27 and '28. But this is a project that we think probably has the most favorable supply-demand dynamics of any integrated resort. So we're very excited about that project. Otherwise, we're scrutinizing our capital investments very closely. The growth capital investments that we have opening shortly in Las Vegas, like Carbone Riviera, Gymkhana, and the rest, we think are going to drive very nice returns for us. But we have a high return threshold right now compared to simply buying our own shares.
Also, I'd like to offer my congrats to Corey, and we enjoyed working with you, Corey, so thanks for that. So if I could just build on the last question a little bit around—the high ROI threshold, Jonathan, that you mentioned. I think the question we get over and over again is, obviously, I think we know the trajectory of land-based gaming in the U.S., but we think a lot more about the growth in digital that you're experiencing. Does the turnaround—so there's going to need to be a balance at some point between value today and a lower cost of capital, but—or a higher cost of capital, but growth that you could achieve looking to a digital future. So just trying to kind of get your current sense on how you prioritize or balance that? And just sort of your thoughts on doubling down on digital given, I think, the stability we've seen from the BetMGM team, obviously, lending itself to being able to return some capital to you.
Yes. Thanks, Shaun. The interesting thing is right now, our digital investments are cash-generative rather than cash-consuming. We're in a very much growth mode in MGM digital as it relates to our BetMGM brand expansions over in Europe and in Brazil. But the core Leo Vegas business together with, of course, BetMGM in North America is both generating now pretty substantial cash flow for us. So it's not requiring a digital investment. And as it relates to additional investments in digital, we're really just focused on growing the existing businesses we have right now as opposed to pursuing any kind of inorganic growth.
Shaun, I'll kick it off, and obviously, my colleagues will add on here. It has been sequential. Obviously, July for everyone in the community was a rough month. The summer was rough, but it sequentially got better. I will say the same about October. Knock on wood, we may even beat October of last year. Recognizing the fourth quarter last year was like an all-time fourth quarter. All that being said, F1 does feel good. Leisure activity is there; we obviously can generate through value. We saw it with a fabulous sale. We literally doubled the bookings in that particular week. So we feel better about it. There's a lot out in front of us. The FAA in its considerations regarding the government shutdown may or may not have an impact; it has not, to date, thankfully. But there's no precursor to what that will mean for the next six weeks or so. Overall, we feel positive. There are a couple of weeks in December with leisure that is a hole that we need to continue to push and see how we fill. But sequentially, we feel better. We use the word stabilization not lightly. We think we can get there.
Just starting off in Macau, the stats you gave for October were impressive. Obviously, it implies share gains, and you gave the share number. But some of your peers have been more aggressive recently and they've been public about that. I know the EBITDA is there for you, you gave that for the month of October as well. But have you had to change your strategy at all? And is that sort of imputed in the share numbers that you have here?
Yes. Okay. This is Kenny. Thank you for your question. Actually, competition is not new to us at all. We see rational competition in the market that operates like a folks—operators focusing on offering quality products and bringing in excellent services for Macau visitors. For MGM China, we—as we always said—are focusing on understanding our customers, conducting CapEx projects, and improving our services to refresh and fine-tune experiences for our premier customers. For example, we have fully launched our Alpha Villas and Alpha Clubs and the Fantasy Parks at MGM Cotai. There are no such competitive products in the Macau peninsula market. The key is these products truly reflect our understanding of our customers; they are well received. The Macau market in January looks pretty optimistic for October. For MGM China, we believe we will deliver one of the strongest months in terms of GGR and EBITDA performance in our company’s history. Currently, what we’re focusing on is effective projects; for instance, on Cotai, we are converting 160 rooms to 63. The majority of them are two-bedroom suites, and construction has started. We target to complete in the first half of next year. We believe these 60 suites will cater to the evolving tastes of our customers. We are also developing some other high-end gaming places at MGM Cotai. We hope to utilize our advantage, which is our deep understanding of our customers. We are acting quickly to maintain our market share in the mid-teens in Macau.
Yes. We're kind of deep into that program now. In fact, most of the actions—the vast majority, let’s say, over 90% of the actions—that we set out really about this time last year are complete. I would say—and I don't want to speak for Corey or Bill, but in my opinion, there's really nothing we would have done differently on the customer value side than what we did. In fact, many of the things we did were in response to what we were hearing from our customers regarding what they were and were not willing to pay for. A lot of our activities also covered the daily blocking and tackling of labor management and procurement, among other things. I certainly wouldn't undo any of that because I don't think it had a customer impact in the end.
Look, we lost control of the narrative over the summer. I think we would all agree to that in hindsight. When we look at the $150 million, we think about resort fees and park fees and some of the other things that were fee-based inside that number—that those have remained as is. When we think about pricing and things that got everyone’s attention, like the infamous bottle of water or a Starbucks coffee at Excalibur costing $12—shame on us. We should have been more sensitive to the overall experience at a place like Excalibur for those customers. You can't have a $29 room and a $12 coffee. We've gone through the organization, we think, and hope we've corrected that pricing. The community sale we previously participated in demonstrated that we understand value; we understand Las Vegas, and we'll always need to be that. I think we've positioned ourselves for that, and we'll continue to do so going forward.
I was wondering if we could talk a little bit about Las Vegas through the lens of the high end and low end. Bill, you mentioned luxury properties and record slot handle there. Have you seen maybe a widening in the performance between these segments of your portfolio? And if so, kind of what are the adjustments or levers you can make going forward to keep everything on the growth path?
I think the core answer is yes. I don't think that's unique to us or our industry for that matter. Yes, looking at Bellagio, ARIA, and Cosmopolitan, they have all continued to maintain rates and generally speaking, in a tough environment, maintain ADRs. When you lose 400,000 seats in a marketplace over the summer, principally caused by Spirit, that speaks to a marketplace we potentially lost. You think about what's going on in the country and that Southern California market—heavily Hispanic—we know our drive traffic was down in the summer, and that presented and continues to present somewhat of a challenge. You think about international visitation in Canada, and while we're all trying to do things to make that better, I don't think that's going to go away anytime soon. That impacts Luxor and Excalibur, which are the two properties here in Las Vegas we struggled with the most. I don't know, Corey, if you have more color.
Look, I think you look at the Bellagio, it seems to be—you wouldn't know anything was wrong with it. We're able to fill the hotel rooms, and the gaming volumes from high-end players has remained stable. On weekends everywhere, we were able to get occupancy. Rates at times may be a little more challenged than they were last year, but still, we’re able to occupy the rooms. This midweek, when the convention base is not here, it's really Luxor and Excalibur that probably have the biggest challenges occupying rooms.
Well, I’ll talk about 40,000 feet, and Jon can provide the actual threshold. Diversification, we've been saying it all along, is key. We think we have the opportunity, given our scale, scope, breadth, and knowledge, to participate in many pieces of this marketplace. We think we do best when we're creating things that are at the highest end, and a lot of the recent things we've done in Macau proved that. Ultimately, what you'll see in Japan will prove that out to be the case. We’re obviously in digital business in a big way, that combined businesses next year will probably do $3.5 billion top line. All that said, diversification is key. We have a large Las Vegas concentration, which we understand and manage, but we will continue to look. Obviously, right now, the value of our stock is trading under 3x for our core business, so it makes all the sense in the world to buy back our own stock. I'm sure the market will readjust itself and other opportunities may come up.
I think one of the pretty things about the performance of MGM China, for example, and BetMGM, is our company is becoming more diversified rather than less as those relatively smaller businesses grow at very high rates. With respect to M&A activity in the regional markets—between Goldstrike and Tunica, over $100 million EBITDA business, Northfield Park over $130 million EBITDA business—these are big businesses, but they are ones that we don't think have the growth to represent the scale of the regional portfolio that we aspire to have. It's a pretty high bar for us to look at any additional regional properties. They have to be, of course, of the quality consistent with our brand, but also of a scale, in any market that we are not in. So it's a pretty high bar for regional M&A, I would say.
So what I want to ask is the Strip leisure recovery question maybe a little bit differently. If we think about the next couple of months, and I’m fully aware the booking window is a little tighter right now, but are you seeing a major difference in the booking patterns for that FIT visitor between your different properties? You talked about this a little bit, Bill. But do you see demand at Bellagio, Cosmo, ARIA, or however you want to think about it)? Is it all really strong, and you aren't seeing the same thing at the other properties like New York, New York, Luxor, etc.? Moving forward, are the booking patterns starting to become a little more similar across all your assets?
I think the luxury booking patterns are similar to what they've been in the past. The core and legacy properties are booking a little bit differently, so where we used to book a ton of that in 30 days, we're seeing some of that book out a little further.
That's a tough question with my CEO sitting right next to me. I mean, sure, I guess, at some price, all properties are for sale. But I would say that our regional portfolio represents market-leading properties with very nice integration into Las Vegas. Most of them are very important BetMGM omnichannel locations as well. So we like that regional portfolio a lot.
Yes. And of the seven, five of them are market leaders; they dominate anywhere from 25% to 47% of the market mix in the particular markets they serve. We think of them—Borgata or the Bow in Mississippi—as highly representing our brand well. They are market leaders, independent of anything else we do, and they do quite well. Obviously, to Jonathan's comment on digital, it's important in most—all of those states. A couple of them are not. Obviously, we've talked about New York. How to think about that long term is time to tell. But one day at a time—we're not going to push for today in New York.
Just want to follow up on Dan's question, but perhaps from the opposite angle. You talked about the undervalued nature of the stock. So what do you view as the primary levers or paths that you could pursue to unlock value from here? I know you referenced diversification, but is there also a path of simplification to consider? And if there are, what do you think is kind of the lowest hanging fruit as we look across China, BetMGM, digital, or otherwise?
Let me kick it off and then Jonathan can certainly add. Digital and the unlock over time of BetMGM is something we continue to contemplate, and that's not a surprise to anybody on the call. We're constantly talking to our partner about how we can all get the best value from what has been created there, which is a tremendous business. I think that's very real. We enjoy our position in Macau, particularly as of late. I think the team has done an amazing job there. You all know we own 56.7% of it with a 20-year relationship with Pansy Ho, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. If we can continue to grow our digital business, it will become more and more of a performer and what's important to us. The growth in our digital business is probably the place we think about diversification the most.
Generating cash flow through our dividend stream from MGM China, along with now dividends from BetMGM, is key. The other thing I'd say is we've of course talked about the last quarter in Las Vegas, but we still think Las Vegas is a fantastic market, and we love our position here. We have a better cost structure than we've ever had in Las Vegas. With the dynamism in this market, I think that's another unlock for the stock.
No, not really. Look, we have a great relationship and partnership with our folks and friends at Entain. We're constantly thinking about ways to improve that business. But no, there's nothing in that context that we need to unlock it.
First off, congrats, Corey. It's been a real pleasure working with you over the years. I wanted to start on a strip question about the 2026 group outlook. I know the homebuilders conference is not in town for just next year. But that doesn't seem to dampen the enthusiasm we're hearing for growth. CON/AGG obviously returns. But are there other specific large conference call-outs you could share so we better understand what's driving the growth outlook?
Yes. Barry, we’ll have to look and get back to you on the large conference call-outs, but I can tell you our mix is going to be better next year. We'll have more room nights. The first half of the year is going to be extremely strong. The first quarter and second quarter will be north of 20% convention mix, which allows us really not only to fill all of our rooms but even potentially yield our rates.
Look, in the regional markets—well, I guess, I go back to Kenny's answer. There's always competition. Maryland continues to be more and more competitive as does New Jersey. In New Jersey, we've recreated a real differentiator with our product. We’ve gone in there and done all the rooms now in what's called the MGM Tower with the old Water Club. We’ve gone through and redone and have an amazing baccarat area for domestic VIP. We have a new noodle shop, and we have a new BBar, which is a center bar. When you go in there, it’s refreshed; it feels like a new property, focused on the high end. We are doing personalization for our highest-level customers in that market. While we are aggressive, we're being aggressive not necessarily in what shows up in your mailbox, but what shows up with your host. We're pushing that high-end VIP extensively. The other markets continue to be aggressive, and we continue to do what we do. I think the margin in this quarter was 30.1% for regional, so I think it's indicative of our activity being measured and appropriate. I think we’ll continue to do that.
Corey, congrats from us as well on your retirement. I wanted to ask about capital in Vegas. So maybe a two-parter on this. First on MGM Grand. I think the disruption that you outlined today on last quarter's call ended up being exactly what you had thought. So first question on that: given that project is done, should we start to see the ADR increases and some of the returns come in? Or do you have to ease into this a little bit just because of the market softness? The second question I have on capital projects in Vegas: Bill, I think you teased us before on ARIA potentially being a project in '26. I believe that wouldn't start until maybe after some of the big conventions, but if you could update us on that as well.
Sure, Chad. I'll kick it off. I think we were down for the quarter, 8% in room nights and 5% in AAC. The first real challenge for all of us, given the market conditions, is to refill those rooms, and we've begun to do that. Frankly, occupancy is in fairly good shape there. Yes, over time, there will be growth as the product itself is spectacular. It exceeded our expectations as well as our customers' expectations. As that gets out and use of that product advances, I think we will see both AAC and ADR lift over the long haul. We are going to take pretty much the balance of '26 off in terms of room remodel. What may be most impactful was we were redoing bathrooms and plumbing, so we were taking two more floors out than normal, and we were always operating with 5 to 8 floors out versus the normal remodel, which centers around 3. We are not going to start the ARIA renovations until November of next year and then really push it into '27, with the principal work being done over the summer of '27, so we can come out of that seasonality rate to roll and go on to the next one, which is like the Golden Gate Bridge in 2028.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bill Hornbuckle for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. And again, I appreciate everyone's recognition of Corey. So, Corey, congrats, and you're making me just. And look, Vegas is fine fundamentally. We feel good about the fourth quarter and particularly going into '26. Macau continues to outperform, and we're excited by that. We're even more excited by what the digital business has been able to do year-over-year and ultimately where we think this goes. Hopefully, you share some of that excitement, and I appreciate everyone's time today. I know it's late back East. So thank you.
Operator
This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.